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Category: Outlook & Reviews

Price Trends

Support for ammonia prices in markets east of Suez eroded during February. The ongoing bubble of support seen in NW Europe remained just about intact, though news of further declines at Tampa for March and slumping natural-gas prices should begin to eat away at any remaining support in the West. After declining $70/t during the first two months of 2025, the Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic was revised down a further $40/t for March, imposing further downward pressure on f.o.b. values in Trinidad and the US Gulf.

Market Outlook

• Sulphur prices have been revised higher in the latest forecast after supply from the Middle East was lower than expected in February, and buyers with uncovered demand were forced to chase prices upwards. UAE sulphur exports normally fall at the start of the year due to scheduled maintenance, but sales in February this year were 200,000 tonnes short of what is typical. Prices may climb more than expected as buyers scramble to cover their shorts. If supply is slower to return than currently anticipated, momentum may push prices even higher in the short term.