The US fertilizer market – different nutrients with divergent stories

Mid-June market backdrop/snapshot

CRU’s latest weekly North American Fertilizer Dashboard (11th June) reports that. “The broader tone across the market remains subdued. Urea has now declined for eight consecutive weeks, while phosphate buyers have become increasingly price sensitive despite a fundamentally tight global supply outlook. Meanwhile, potash continues to benefit from relatively stable pricing and stronger affordability than other major nutrients.”

It is demand – not supply – that is also commanding the market’s attention currently, according to the Dashboard. “Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, inventories across much of the US remain broadly adequate following strong spring imports. Combined with weaker grain prices, poor fertilizer affordability, and a largely complete planting season, buyers have shown little urgency to extend coverage. Producers, particularly in urea, have responded by becoming increasingly aggressive in an effort to generate business.”

Focus is now shifting to the next phase of the summer market. Nutrien’s headline price of $385/st f.o.b. for its potash fill programme has established an early benchmark for third quarter pricing. CF Industries, meanwhile, announced its US ammonia fill on 23d June – with pricing ranging from $530-605/st f.o.b. – with its UAN fill expected to follow on 6th July.

Urea under the greatest pressure

Justin, the sustained urea price decline in the US has brought certain benchmarks below levels seen at the same time last year. That seems paradoxical given the headlines warning of global supply shortages. How’s the North American market insulated itself from these supply concerns and sourced urea successfully this spring – and what’s been driving the trend of week-on-week price falls during the second quarter?

“When you look at US urea imports on a fertilizer year basis, July 2025 through June 2026, there’s really not a huge story to tell, versus last year and the year prior. We’re kind of plus or minus 1% on the five-year average – so we’re right on track. [Yet] I don’t think anybody in the industry, whether they’re an analyst or a trader, would have thought at the beginning of the Middle East conflict, in early March or even April, that we would have seen such a rapid sell-off and urea today would be priced below last year’s levels, with import volumes approaching the historical average.

“What’s happened in the US this year is that we saw a big import boost in the three-months from February to April. In 2026, we imported 2.96 million tonnes over that period – that’s up almost 40% over the five-year average of 2.1 million tonnes. Russian imports were the largest component but Qatari imports were key too.

“Russia made up 35% of total urea imports over that February-April period and Qatar made up 18-19% of that total. So there were a lot of urea imports that kept the market very comfortably supplied. In February, the US imported 325,000 tonnes of urea just from Qatar alone.

“Stepping back a bit, 2025 import levels were suppressed – we all forget about this – because we had reciprocal tariffs in place for much of that year. Those were pulled off in November – and then what we saw was an influx of Qatari barges in the first quarter of this year. So once those tariffs were pulled off, there was a window and a bunch of supply headed our way.

“At the same time, we’ve had these very aggressive price moves. One of the key differences between 2026 and 2022 is that is that food prices rocketed up alongside fertilizer prices in the Russia-Ukraine conflict – which allowed urea and phosphates to go above that $1,000/t mark. Now, with the Middle East conflict this year, that region is not growing crops at scale: they’re a food importer, not a food exporter like Ukraine. So crop prices didn’t go up and therefore fertilizer pricing was effectively capped.

“We also had a really well-supplied urea market in the US confronting the fact you had a NOLA barge hitting a highpoint of $785 per short ton on April 14th. That made price falls inevitable. The NOLA average for urea hit a high of $744/st that week. Pre-conflict, it was at $474/st and then last week, the third week of June, we were at $386/st.

“We’ve just had this extreme volatility with NOLA urea in a short period of time. Prices jumped 57% at its peak and now we’ve come off 48% from that in very rapid succession.

“Where do I think the US market’s going now in terms of urea pricing – because it has been a correction. There could be some more downside ahead of us, but we are at levels now that should start triggering some buying.

“But, going back to your question at the beginning, how did the US market insulate itself? We had really good supply and a big month right when the conflict was lifting off. We ended up importing 1.3 million tonnes or more in March and then kept that up in April with nearly 900,000 tonnes.”

Affordability a priority for phosphate buyers

The latest CRU North American Fertilizer Dashboard highlights a softening of the phosphate market with several sellers lowering offers in an effort to generate liquidity. I have two questions, Justin: Firstly, are buyers continuing to prioritise phosphate affordability over securing additional tonnes, and is there adequate supply from the summer phosphate import line-up. Secondly, as an essential feedstock for sulphuric acid, how hard is the sulphur price surge hitting domestic DAP and MAP producers – should we expect to see more idling of capacity?

“There’s not a whole lot of people itching to buy phosphates right now. We’re caught in this battle where, because phosphate affordability has been really poor for a long time, it’s a conversation non-starter.

“Since CVDs [countervailing duties] were introduced, buyers have had a lot of supply shocks and I have the feeling they’ve grown quite numb to all these calls saying, ‘Hey, you better buy it now because we may not be able to supply it in future.’ They’ve heard it all before.

“With phosphate, we have supply destruction and we have demand destruction, and it’s like, ‘Which is going to win?’ Because last year it was a really big story as well. I think the demand story is somewhat overplayed, as there have been many years of over or consistent phosphate application.

“Through our conversations with the market, phosphate [application] volumes have been off the last couple of years – but it’s debatable how much volumes are actually off. You hear anecdotally that phosphate applications are anywhere from 30-35% to 50% down. But when you talk to some of the big agricultural states like Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, it’s not gloom and doom. Their volumes may be off a little bit – but a lot of it is buying behaviour and just-in-time buying.

“There’s not a whole lot of incentive to buy the way phosphate is priced right now. It’s very expensive and the cost of capital is not cheap. So if you’re going to buy something, you’re going to have to carry forward the interest on it. We also have a limit to how high phosphate prices can go, as growers will just stop buying – ‘high prices cure high prices’ as we say.

“We had a really well-supplied urea market in the US confronting the fact you had a NOLA barge hitting a highpoint of $785 per short ton on April 14th. That made price falls inevitable. The NOLA average for urea hit a high of $744/st that week. Pre-conflict, it was at $474/st and then last week, the third week of June, we were at $386/st.”

“In terms of supply, with reciprocal tariffs and CVDs last year, we had very low DAP/MAP import numbers. When you look at the period June 2025 going into January 2026, we only imported a couple hundred thousand tonnes of DAP and MAP combined. Yet the market was never really screaming for product, whether that was because of demand destruction and/or some decent domestic supply.

“Either way, we barely got any imports in that six-month period. Then, once the reciprocal tariffs came off, we had a nice little onslaught of supply in the first quarter with around 700,000 tonnes of DAP and MAP imports, with most of that DAP. We saw that [healthy import levels] continue through the spring.

“What does US phosphate supply look like now for the [summer] fill period? Well, we just had that MAP cargo land from Saudi Arabia and we’ve heard reports there’s another one headed this way for July arrival. We may enter this period where DAP is going to carry a premium to MAP because of a lack of DAP. Either way, we’re entering a global phosphate supply situation that’s unprecedented and, of course, that all goes back to China and its export policy.

“In terms of sulphur prices, I can tell you this much: domestic phosphate producers are not getting rich right now, that’s for sure. I’m fairly certain their margins are negative currently with today’s ammonia and sulphur raw material costs.

“Could we see more curtailments in phosphates production? I’m in no position to say if that’s going to happen. But that’s not off the table if we have these elevated sulphur costs maintained and supply restricted. If the status quo stays the same, there’s no reason to believe that producers will turn curtailed production back on with the current economics.”

A tranquil potash segment

Potash is clearly the most stable of the three major nutrients. Benchmarks have not moved following Nutrien’s summer fill announcement. Is it all looking calm and predictable in the potash market as we head into the third quarter?

“With summer fill, potash producers will try to incentivise buyers by maybe offering a reduced price, but Nutrien’s summer fill announcement came in right where market expectations were. The point of the incentive is just to provide some market stability here. There hasn’t been that same volatility with potash  – versus nitrogen and phosphates –  and the outlook is very flat for the rest of the year.

“There’s not a whole lot of incentive to buy the way phosphate is priced right now. It’s very expensive and the cost of capital is not cheap. So if you’re going to buy something, you’re going to have to carry forward the interest on it. We also have a limit to how high phosphate prices can go, as growers will just stop buying.”

“BHP’s Jansen project is coming online next year, but there’s a lot of unknowns. How’s it going to distribute, where is it going to distribute? I think that’s still in the early stages.

“There’s also a reason why the US gets so much potash from Mosaic and Nutrien. They’ve got distribution networks set up in the US, they’ve got distribution hubs, they’ve trade partners here. They also have a lot of different offerings, not just potash.

“That doesn’t mean that you can’t have a new entrant participating in the market. I think BHP will sell what it wants to sell in the US. But how much production is destined for the US market and how that gets distributed? That’s an unanswered question so far.”

Industry gathers at New Orleans for SWFC centenary

What would you expect to see dominating conversations at Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in New Orleans in mid-July – and what key messages would you be communicating to conference delegates on the current market state-of-play?

“I always ask what’s the conference mood going to be like? You typically either have years where delegates come in on a high – they’ve made good money, they’re optimistic – or other years where the atmosphere is more muted. I tend to think that this year’s SWFC is going to be the latter.

“Earlier in the year, there was a very short window to make money. If you’re managing a big urea book, it’s tough to make good money when prices have been moving up 50% and down 50% within a 30-day period.

“The US on the ag side is probably not going to have a great year. CRU is estimating that US corn acreage will fall to around 94-95 million acres. That’s still positive and above the historical norm. Yes, it’s lower than last year – but that was a bumper 98 million acres – and soybean acres are also expected to be up on last year.

“The big questions comes back to fertilizer demand and the US market outlook. My question is always, ‘Well, what does this 2027 crop look like?’ If we get to a point in the fall where the price of corn is closer to 4 bucks and soybeans closer to 11, where does that leave fertilizer demand? Because that would be year after year of a really bad farm economy.

“Phosphates are, of course, going to be a big talking point at SWFC. You have these massive supply concerns against a backdrop of historically poor affordability. It’s therefore a battle between demand destruction and supply destruction and which is going to win that battle. So far, though, a lid has been kept on high prices because of demand destruction.”

In London for IFA’s global market intelligence event

Finally, Justin, you’re presenting for CRU at IFA’s Global Markets Conference in London in July. What’s the theme of your presentation?

“I’m really looking forward to the event. My presentation has to cover a lot in a short period – so I’m approaching it slightly differently,

“There’s been a lot of focus on the fertilizer market here in the US, from the administration, Congress and the Senate, and just through media headlines. Because when prices are high, fertilizers garner a lot of attention.

“My presentation is going to look at those comments in the media and by lawmakers and the ambitious goals on production the US administration has set forth – by asking can the US do this? Can we really increase our nitrogen production and phosphate production by X percent – what is the reality here, especially given the time window?

“And then, ultimately, where do CRU actually see the US market in five-years time. That goes back to a question you asked earlier – do we think there’s any policies that are going to structurally alter the US market? It’s really looking at some of goals and statements made by the US administration, their feasibility and how we think these will actually play out.”

Want to know more?

Justin Rackleff (+17192904584, Justin.Rack-leff@crugroup.com) writes CRU’s North American Fertilizer dashboard, a weekly briefing provided as part of our Fertilizer Week information and market intelligence service: crugroup.com/en/solutions/fertilizer-services/fertilizer-week/

Justin will be presenting the US market outlook at IFA’s Global Markets Conference in London on Tuesday 7th July: fertilizer.org/event/globalmarkets-conference-2026/