Policy decisions and geopolitical shocks are now the dominant drivers of sulphur and phosphate fertilizer markets, overriding more traditional seasonal fundamentals. The conflict in the Middle East, including the escalation around Iran, has tightened sulphur availability and lifted costs sharply, while China’s export restrictions continue to restrict global phosphate supply.
It is two months on from our previous issue, and almost none of the news has been good from sulphur and downstream markets. Only three sulphur cargoes are confirmed to have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, all loaded at Ruwais, with destinations in India, Tanzania and Morocco, carrying a total of 160,000 tonnes. It is believed that a couple of Iranian vessels with a total of 75,000 tonnes may also have left covertly. But in spite of some Middle Eastern sulphur making its way to Saudi Red Sea ports or Duqm on Oman’s Indian Ocean coast, around 700,000 tonnes is still trapped on ships stranded in the Gulf, and coupled with production cuts in the region, it is estimated that over 1.2 million tonnes has so far been removed from the market.
• Prices are expected to hold at historically high levels as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. If the situation persists, further price increases are likely, which will only intensify the affordability crisis for global consumers.
Sulphur continued to break historic records in most key international markets at the start of May as the scarcity of spot supply propelled prices higher, which triggered production cuts at some downstream markets, and increased costs in other industrial sectors. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which halted the flow of Middle East supply, has forced desperate buyers to compete for the limited available spot cargoes, primarily from North America. Although fresh transactions were limited, export and delivered prices climbed higher, and market sentiment remained jittery. QatarEnergy hiked its sulphur price to $740/t f.o.b., a new record high for this contract since its inception in August 2013.
The start of May saw urea prices start to decline from the yearly highs seen in mid-April, as buyers from India, the US, and Europe stayed away from the markets. India is not expected to return with another tender before late May or early June at the earliest, after booking 2.5 million tonnes for shipment through mid-June, covering immediate requirements, and with domestic production having improved and stocks at a healthy level of over 7 million tonnes. In the US, earlier concerns over May shipments have eased, with net import figures not as low as initially feared, and even some re-export of cargoes to Latin America where higher prices can be earned. With the potential for China to return to export sales towards the end of May and start of June, there was at least a hope that the worst of the current price spike may be over.
• Short-term outlook: Ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure. The PAU turnaround removes a key supply source from an already tight SE Asian market.
Global ammonia benchmarks pushed to fresh highs in April, with a reported trade from Egypt to NW Europe at $905/t c.fr, marking the highest Atlantic level seen since the Middle East conflict began. The move was driven primarily by tightening North African supply, with Algerian offer levels climbing to $840-850/t f.o.b., and Egyptian availability constrained by EBIC being sold out through June, together with limited prompt tonnage from Abu Qir.
Copper smelters are under fresh pressure as treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) fall amid tighter concentrate supply and rising smelter capacity, while record sulphuric acid values reshape smelter revenues.
A review of papers presented at this year’s Sulphur World Symposium, held by The Sulphur Institute (TSI) in Vancouver, Canada this year from April 28 to 30.
Bullish sentiment in the sulphuric acid market has intensified amid the suspension of all Chinese sulphuric acid exports from May.