• The market has paused as bearish buyer sentiment has not yet translated into lower spot prices. The direction of the next major deal is now the critical test. This will either initiate a downward price correction, validating buyer caution, or force a recognition of the market’s underlying tightness and bring purchasers back to the table at current levels.
The global sulphur market has entered a holding pattern, as a wave of bearish sentiment has so far failed to move stubbornly high spot prices. The departure of a significant volume of product from the Middle East has emboldened buyers and shifted market sentiment firmly towards bearish, but at time of writing this has so far failed to translate into lower prices. With sellers in no hurry to lower prices and spot availability still tight, the market has stalled as both sides wait for the other to blink first.
Peter Harrisson, Principal, Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Market Services, provides a brief snapshot of the global sulphur market at the end of June 2026.
The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran broke down at the start of July, just three weeks after the signing of the June memorandum of understanding, after Iran fired at several vessels who had failed to notify them of their transit of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US retaliated with a missile barrage. While the two month negotiation period it had specified to solve all of the outstanding issues between the two parties had always seemed over-ambitious, market participants had at least expected to have that grace period to arrange for new cargoes and tranship them through the Strait. Now that the ceasefire has ended early, markets are truly entering uncharted waters.
• The global sulphur market outlook is flat to soft in the near term: most
Most key sulphur import markets remained stagnant in late August due to weak demand. A premium is being paid for cargoes with guaranteed delivery schedules, driven by ongoing logistical risks in the Middle East. This has firmed prices in North America and Indonesia, but the potential return of supply from Russia and Kazakhstan may add some downward pressure.
Viviana Alavardo, CRU Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Analyst, examines how China's 2026 sulphuric acid export suspension removed an estimated 2.8 million tonnes from trade, deepening sulphur shortages. Prices have eased since May but remain historically high amid limited replacement supply.
The August deadline for talks between the US and Iran came and went, as expected, with no resolution to the conflict. At time of writing, both sides were exchanging tit for tat attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran claiming that it would be instituting a new ‘exclusion zone’, and no sign of a diplomatic resolution in sight. With the flow of ammonia, urea and other commodities like oil, LNG and sulphur from the Gulf still slowed to a trickle, the summer of high prices and demand destruction looks set to extend well into autumn at least.
The ammonia market continues be divided on a regional basis during August. In northwest Europe, prices remained high, holding above the $700/t CFR mark, underpinned by high Dutch TTF gas prices, which stood at €63.93/ MWh ($21.5/MMBtu) as of 20 August. The spot market was active, with two cargoes destined for CF Fertilisers in the UK, one an ex-Trinidad cargo supplied by Koch and the other an ex-Algeria cargo supplied by Trammo. Trammo was also linked to a separate, unconfirmed, sale into Poland for Grupa Azoty.
• Prices are expected to hold firm in Europe, though values elsewhere could well undergo further pressure, with Tampa also expected to decline for September.