Tag: Prices

The US and Israel attacks on Iran and the Iranian response have thrown commodity markets into chaos, with sulphur and sulphuric acid particularly affected.

• Market sentiment has shifted decisively from bearish to bullish as the conflict in the Middle East has triggers a significant price rally.

Conflict in the Middle East has halted all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively paralysing a region that accounts for 48% of global seaborne sulphur trade. As a result, the sulphur spot market has ground to a halt, with prices notionally holding unchanged in the $490-515/t f.o.b. range simply due to a lack of activity. No spot offers were reported out of the Middle East.

Price trends and market outlook, 26th February 2026. (Important note: this Market Insight was published two days before the start of the latest Middle East conflict.)

• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.

In just its first two months, 2026 had already managed to be a rollercoaster of a year, but at the start of March, the onset of hostilities against Iran by the US and Israel has managed to deliver another huge shock to markets, particularly commodities. Iran’s strategy of widening the conflict to neighbouring states, including by attacking Qatar’s massive LNG facility at Ras Laffan, effectively shutting it down, has sent the LNG market into chaos, and attacks on several tankers and other ships have paralysed maritime insurance markets and by default achieved the long-feared closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.

Corn grower groups are pressing the US Justice Department for an update on its fertilizer market probe.

The global sulphur market’s bullish momentum from late 2025 has firmly carried over into the New Year, with prices pushing forward across most key regions despite a slow return to spot trading after the holiday break. With spot prices now past their 2022 highs and testing levels not seen since the 2008 peak, affordability has become the market’s central theme. The market remains divergent, with some buyers forced to accept the rally due to tight supply, while others, particularly in China, are showing clear signs of demand destruction.

Sulphur prices have risen rapidly in recent months as the market moves into a period of deficit which is likely to last until 2028.