Tag: Trade

• The short term outlook appears balanced for the most part, although more bullish participants seem to be holding sway over market sentiment.

Increased merchant ammonia capacity over the next few years may lead to longer term price declines.

Ju ne saw fertilizer markets – urea markets in particular – thrown into chaos by the widening of hostilities in the Middle East. Israel’s and then the United States’ strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the retaliatory attacks on Israel and Qatar for a while held out the potential for the conflict to widen, perhaps even leading to attempts to close the straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, something not seen since the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s when Iraq tried to cripple Iran’s oil exports during the eight year Iran-Iraq War.

The Iran-Israel conflict in mid-June placed the urea market on edge prior to a ceasefire announcement.

The Belarusian government has nationalised and is fast-tracking the two million t/a capacity Slavkaliy project.

Grupa Azoty Police has successfully loaded a 36,640 tonne fertilizer consignment at its seaport for transport to South America. The historic shipment marks the first of its kind, in terms of its scale and the history of the company’s Police production plant, Grupa Azoty said.

President Donald Trump delayed his ‘liberation day” tariffs by three months on 9th April, while simultaneously ramping up levies on China. In this latest twist to the on-off US tariffs saga, the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on additional duties should provide international suppliers to the world’s biggest fertilizer market with some respite – for now. With the exception of China, the US will now cut back its so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ to 10% for the duration of a three-month suspension period. The European Union’s tariff is now halved to 10%, for example, with the trade bloc also pausing its trade countermeasures against the US.

While the US tariff situation remains subject to considerable uncertainty, there has already been an impact on short term trade flows, as well as investment decisions.

• Global sulphur prices are expected to stay relatively stable as purchases in Asia slow down due to the closing of the purchasing window for the Chinese spring fertilizer application season.

Urea markets are well supplied at present in spite of Chinese export restrictions, but face volatility due to a number of trade barriers and other non-market pressures.