Tag: Market outlook

Sulphur prices have risen rapidly in recent months as the market moves into a period of deficit which is likely to last until 2028.

• CRU’s latest global sulphur forecast is for a January price peak before a decline, with the key downside risk being a sharper correction if the supply deficit closes faster than expected. The global sulphur market’s upward momentum has been slowing, with attention shifting to geopolitical risks in Iran. Despite limited physical disruption being reported, the upside risk to prices could be substantial. Following the US bombing of an Iranian nuclear facility back in June, supply from Iran became bottlenecked, despite good production levels, as vessel owners became unwilling to call at ports like Bandar Abbas due to the increased risk.

Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher at the start of January, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Conditions at the start of the year mirror late2025, with prices supported by persistent supply tightness from the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which removes an estimated 300– 400,000 tonnes from the market. The unit is expected to return in midtolate January.

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

Price trends and market outlook, 18th December 2025.

We look ahead at fertilizer industry prospects for the next 12 months, and the key economic and agricultural drivers likely to shape the market.

Fertilizer sales to Brazilian farmers are currently in line with the average of the past three years, despite variations by crop and state. CRU’s Anthony Rizzo and Bruno Fardim Christo of Veeries provide an update on the status of fertilizers and crops in the Brazilian market.

Filipe Gouveia , BIMCO’s shipping analysis manager, looks ahead at the dry bulk market and freight rate prospects for 2026.

Price trends and market outlook, 23rd October 2025

• Russia is set to impose a temporary ban on sulphur exports, covering liquid, granulated, and lump material, to ensure domestic supply. The measure will be in effect until 31 December 2025. CRU expects Russia to return to the export market in 2026 Q1. On the other hand, exports from Iranian ports are set to come back not only for Iranian production but also for Turkmenistan.