Category: Regions

S&P has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million bbl/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million bbl/d by 2030; half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 bbl/d (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favourable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximising existing assets through investments in optimisation and efficiency. While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

The mid-year negotiations between Antofagasta (AMSA) and Chinese smelters have concluded with a historic settlement of $0/0¢. While unprecedented, the outcome is not surprising, as it lands slightly above the midpoint of the believed negotiating range, from -$15/-1.5¢ proposed by Antofagasta +$10/1.0¢ from the Chinese smelters. Moreover, this result aligns with market participants' rumours circulating prior to the agreement. Separately, rumours suggest Q3 contract negotiations between one top miner and Chinese smelters concluded at levels ranging from -$25/-2.5¢ to (+)$5/0.5¢.

Ballance Agri-Nutrients, the New Zealand farmer and grower co-operative, says that it has entered into consultation on a proposal to cease manufacturing of sulphuric acid and single super phosphate (SSP) at its Mount Maunganui site. The proposals envisage net job losses of 62 roles, but the intention is for the co-operative to remain onsite utilising the proximity to the port for nutrient storage and distribution, and for its national support office. Ballance would continue to manufacture phosphates at its Awarua facility in Invercargill and urea at its Kapuni facility in Taranaki. Ballance CEO Kelvin Wickham says this proposal is part of a wider process the organisation has been going through over the past year to get ahead of changes in the sector and identify future opportunities to support New Zealand farmers and growers. “In the coming years, we expect to see an increased range of products and services that more efficiently and effectively deliver essential nutrients for farmers and growers, which will result in reduced overall demand for single super phosphate from historical peak volumes,” he said. “The number of existing facilities currently making this product in New Zealand means there is an overcapacity of supply. Our current facilities at Mount Maunganui also require substantial investment to keep them operating reliably and will face increasing regulatory constraints to be able to operate heavy manufacturing into the future.”

The Egyptian Mineral Resources and Mining Industries Authority has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with El Sewedy Capital Investments to establish a partnership for the exploration, exploitation, and production of phosphate rock in the El-Sebaeya region of the Nile valley, with downstream beneficiation and a feasibility study for establishing a factory to produce phosphate fertilizers.

PetroChina has started production at Dukouhe-Qilibei, the last of three major sour gas fields in its high-sulphur Chuandongbei cluster in southwest China. The Dukouhe-Qilibei field’s hydrogen sulphide content reaches up to 17.1%, the highest of any integrated gas field currently in production in China. PetroChina confirmed that commissioning was completed on 30 June, with the Dazhou gas processing plant now running at its full design capacity of 4 million cubic metres per day. The Chuandongbei cluster originally comprised three key sour gas block: Luojiazhai, Tieshanpo, and Dukouhe-Qilibei, and was initially developed under a partnership between Chevron and PetroChina, with Chevron leading the early-phase project development. However, Chevron exited the project in 2020, transferring full control to PetroChina following operational delays and cost challenges. PetroChina says that the completion of Dukouhe-Qilibei solidifies its capabilities in handling high-sulphur content gas fields and marks a significant boost to China’s domestic gas supply, particularly in inland regions with growing industrial demand. n

Northern Nutrients, a manufacturer of enhanced nitrogen sulphur fertilizers, has announced a new ownership structure following an investment by Shell Trading Canada. Shell Trading Canada has invested in expanding Northern Nutrients’ current facility, resulting in the formation of a new joint venture. The expansion will result in a tripling of current capacity of 50,000 t/a to 150,000 t/a of sulphur-based fertilizers. The company’s facility near Saskatoon produces enhanced nitrogen sulphur fertilizers using Shell Thiogro technology. Their flagship product, Arctic S, is 11% nitrogen and 75% micronised elemental sulphur. Northern Nutrients says that its collaboration with Shell underscores their shared dedication to providing retailers and farmers with high-quality and efficient fertilizers and meet the growing demand for innovative fertilizer products.

The S.A. Nyyazov Chemical Plant in Turkmenabat produced 115,850 tonnes of sulfuric acid during the first five months of this year, according to local press reports. The plant also produced 11,297 tonnes of mineral fertilizers over the same period, including 5,227 tonnes of nitrogen-based and 6,070 tonnes of phosphorus-based fertilizers. The Turkmenistan government recently approved the construction of a new plant at the facility to produce 350,000 t/a of superphosphate and 100,000 t/a of ammonium sulphate. South Korea’s Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co. has been awarded the EPC contract for the plant.

TotalEnergies has awarded the China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) the engineering, procurement, supply, construction and commissioning (EPSCC) contract to build its new Ar-Ratawi gas processing plant in Iraq. CPECC subsidiary China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering will build two midstream gas pipelines connecting the Majnoon and West Qurna 2 oilfields to Artawi-based processing plant. The planned gas pipeline infrastructure comprises a 114-kilometre sour gas pipeline built with 26-inch diameter pipes, an 83-kilometre, 20-inch sour gas pipeline, and an 83-kilometre, 20-inch sour gas pipeline. The awards form part of the TotalEnergies-led Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) in Iraq, which is valued at $10 billion.

EuroChem says that it expects the Phase III expansion project at its Karatau phosphate development in Kazakhstan to be onstream by 2026. In its Annual Report, EuroChem says that it signed an agreement with the China National Chemical Engineering Co. in May 2024 for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the chemical complex, and construction is now underway. The company says that it has also had state permits for the construction of additional sulphuric acid production, where the installation of large-capacity equipment is already underway and the first product is expected in 2026. The fertilizer plant is expected to have a capacity of around 1 million t/a, with a construction cost of $1.1 billion for the project. Phosphate reserves at Karatau are put at 41 million tonnes.

The Iran-Israel conflict in mid-June placed the urea market on edge prior to a ceasefire announcement.