Chinese acid export ban drives prices higher

Bullish sentiment in the sulphuric acid market has intensified amid the suspension of all Chinese sulphuric acid exports from May through the end of the year. Although no formal announcement has been issued by government authorities, smelters are reportedly preparing to implement the measure. The potential halt would follow the quota system imposed for January-April, which capped exports for the period at 700,000 tonnes – just over half the volume shipped during the same period last year. Both the quota and the anticipated suspension are designed to protect domestic supply.

A withdrawal of Chinese exports adds substantial pressure to a global market where supply is already tight. Prices have been on an upward trajectory since 2025 Q4 and are now at their highest levels since 2022 due to multiple factors, including demand from major consumers, constrained availability from key exporting regions, and elevated sulphur prices due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The bullish tone has been reinforced by rising domestic sulphuric acid prices in China, increasing from an average of $161/t in late February to $214/t in March.

China’s exit from the export market is set to be highly disruptive. China increased annual acid exports to 4.6 million t/a in 2025 in response to global supply disruption. Chinese cargoes have consistently filled a structural gap in global supply over the past several years. The loss of these volumes will tighten availability even further, with limited scope for other origins to compensate. Following the export announcement, CRU has assessed a potential scenario for 2026 exports where China is expected to reduce exports by around 2.8 million t/a for the year. India, South Korea, and Japan could collectively increase exports by just 500,000 t/a. Europe also has some possibility for additional export volume if local acid demand slows due to elevated costs.

The announcement of China’s export halt is expected to add further upward pressure to sulphuric acid prices, potentially pushing values beyond the previous peaks recorded in 2008 and 2022. However, in a market that was already bullish, further sharp rises in prices are likely to prompt some importers to step back. Saudi Arabia has already withdrawn from the spot market – primarily due to logistical disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Morocco’s buying activity is also expected to remain subdued, as the company has brought forward maintenance at several facilities for Q2 and is able to rely on existing sulphur inventories. The return of more sulphur availability later in 2026 would allow some acid importers to substitute supply into on-site production. Without such additional sulphur supply, the risk of the import loss becoming absolute demand destruction grows.