Price Trends

Ammonia markets were quiet in June, though both CF Industries and Grupa Azoty were reported to be looking for July tonnes and the enquiry will test how tight the market is going forward. Algeria has traded in the $400-405/t f.o.b. range, suggesting c.fr values in Europe might be slightly higher at $450-460/t c.fr. Supply from Algeria has been and continues to be somewhat restricted because of constraints caused by the hot weather. Gas supply however is easing in Egypt and further ammonia exports should emerge shortly.

The Middle East still awaits the return of one of Ma’aden’s ammonia units which is down for a turnaround but a reduction in price in the region suggests the supply position is easing from recent tightness. PIC sold a parcel to the Far East at $330/t f.o.b. following recent sales as high as $360/t f.o.b.

Indonesia still appears to be without spot tonnes and traders believe little will emerge in July. Malaysia also has little to offer and is focused on term deliveries. The market was expecting the Tampa price to emerge at time of writing, and some anticipated a rollover from the $400/t f.o.b. agreed for June. The more bearish participants however point to the weaker domestic market in the US and in particular the aggressive fill program announced 20 June by Koch.