Tag: Prices

The risk of a second Covid-19 wave over the winter period continues to fuel the trend of forward trading of sulphur cargoes. Downward pressure in some sectors for demand is likely as the macro economic forecast remains challenging.

Meena Chauhan, Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.

G. Bowerbank and W. Blas of Shell Catalysts & Technologies discuss low cost strategies to maximise value at existing gas processing facilities. Changing solvents, introducing advanced column internals or a combination of both are relatively simple and cost-effective options for boosting production or revenue with minimal investment.

Do you remember Peak Oil? This was the theory, driven by research originally conducted by petroleum geologist M.K. Hubbert in the 1950s, that oil production inevitably followed a bell curve, with supply eventually peaking as easier reserves were exhausted, leading to an inflexion point in production and a long tailing off. Originally Hubbert was talking solely about US oil production, and he seemed to have been borne out by the evidence. But a lack of discoveries of new large fields in the 1990s led to a revision of the theory that predicted a global production peak in 2005-6, potentially leading to rapidly rising oil prices until demand destruction occurred.

The ammonia market continues to be oversupplied, and prices have dropped to historically low levels. Yuzhnyy rates dropped to $175/t f.o.b. in July. In spite of shutdowns in Trinidad and elsewhere, demand remains sluggish and recovery from the Covid epidemic is patchy, especially in the US.

Spanish fertilizer producer Fertiberia is teaming up with energy firm Iberdrola to build Europe’s largest plant for generating green hydrogen for industrial use – in this case ammonia production. The 100MW solar plant and accompanying 20 MWh lithium-ion battery system and 20MW electrolytic hydrogen production system will be built at a cost of $174 million, and electrolyse water to produce 720 t/a of hydrogen. When fed into Fertiberia’s existing ammonia plant at Puertollano, 250km south of Madrid, the hydrogen will allow a 10% reduction in natural gas use by the plant, saving the company 39,000 t/a in annual CO 2 emissions. Start-up is planned for 2021. Fertiberia will also use electrolysis-generated oxygen as a raw material for nitric acid, which is used to produce ammonium nitrate at the site.

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic has been the big story in every market this year, the disruption and dislocations that this has caused have masked some of the bigger trends in the urea market, such as the revival of Chinese exports and India’s push for self-sufficiency.

“T here are,” Mark Twain once remarked, “three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It’s certainly difficult to know what to make of economic statistics and indicators at the moment, in the world turned upside down that the Covid-19 pandemic has delivered. Here in the UK, we are told that April and May saw the national economy contract by 25%, the largest fall in 300 years of the Bank of England’s economic record keeping, and the situation is very similar across much of the developed world. But how real is that figure? After all, we were all sent home in March, to ‘lock down’ and prevent the spread of the virus, and we are only now starting to move back towards some semblance of normality. Some of us, fortunately or not, have still been able to work from home, but for much of the economy, especially for much of the service sector; tourism, travel, restaurants and hotels, theatres and cinemas – there has been zero activity. Remove half of the largest sector of the economy for three months and surely a 25% fall in output is exactly what you’d expect? But is that real, or just a number? Has that activity gone for good, or, now that we are emerging, blinking into the sunlight again, can we switch the economy back on again as easily as we switched it off?

Meena Chauhan , Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.