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Tag: Prices

China’s troubled transition

All is not well with the Chinese economy. Growth has slowed to a fraction of what it was, only 0.8% in 2Q 2023, and has not bounced back as expected as covid lockdowns were eased. Exports and imports are both falling, debt has reached 300% of GDP, youth unemployment is running at 20%, and the property market is collapsing, with huge property developers like Evergrande and Country Garden only avoiding bankruptcy via government arranged loan restructurings. Consumer prices have fallen year on year, raising the spectre of deflation, and productivity growth has fallen from 4.5% year on year in 2006-7 to around 0.8% today. The yuan is trading at a 16-year low against the dollar.

Market Outlook

Indonesian imports have increased in 2023 so far on a year earlier. As new nickel high pressure acid leach projects ramp up, demand for sulphur is expected to increase further. Swing buyers have been importing significant volumes of sulphuric acid, affecting short term sulphur demand in the second quarter. It remains to be seen if this will continue, we expect sulphur demand to ramp up further in the second half of the year, bringing import expectations for the year to around 2 million t.