Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

The EU benchmark TTF natural gas price had fallen to $16.89/MMBtu on average for February, down 19% on January’s average and 36% lower than the figure for February 2022. By the end of the month it had fallen to $14.83/MMBtu, its lowest level since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. EU gas storage was assessed as 61% full on 28 February, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 40%, due to strong LNG imports and mild weather over the winter. Over one third of European ammonia capacity has returned to production as gas prices fall.

Ammonia prices registered another week of losses at the start of January, with supply options continuing to outweigh demand in most regions. Prices have been falling steadily for the past twelve weeks, as the market rebalances after production curtailments across Europe for much of 2022. Steady falls in gas pricing over the past few weeks have put production costs firmly below today’s import price, with European production now scheduled to ramp up at many plants this month.

The market is anticipated to correct lower throughout the rest of the first quarter. Once a clearer picture over seasonal fertilizer demand in Europe emerges, this could stabilise downward momentum.

The ammonia market appears to be oversupplied as of the end of October 2022, with a ready availability of spot cargoes. Coupled with increased availability from European producers due to an easing of gas prices, this seemed to indicate bearish market sentiment for the immediate future.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Overall the market finds itself in a period of illiquidity, and is exposed to further uncertainty in 4Q because of the European energy crisis. Spiralling natural gas costs in Europe, with Dutch TTF gas prices trading around e200/MWh, are forcing European fertilizer producers to close ammonia capacity and buy in from overseas.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Yara and Mosaic shocked markets with a settlement of $1,625/t c.fr for April, up $490/t on March, and the highest ever price recorded at Tampa, as the removal of Russian and Ukrainian ammonia supply impacted global prices, and Baltic rates soared to $1,500/t. However, April saw some of the global dislocations caused by the Russian conflict begin to ease, while the high prices saw buyers in the US delay purchases, leading to the Tampa price falling back $200/t for May loadings.

Spot ammonia prices made steep losses in west of Suez regions following the $200/t drop in the Tampa May contract price in late April, as supply and demand start to rebalance two months after the removal of Black Sea ammonia exports from the market. Yara has settled the Tampa contract price for May with Mosaic at $1,425/t c.fr, a $200/t drop from April.