Skip to main content

Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Price Trends

Support for ammonia prices in markets east of Suez eroded during February. The ongoing bubble of support seen in NW Europe remained just about intact, though news of further declines at Tampa for March and slumping natural-gas prices should begin to eat away at any remaining support in the West. After declining $70/t during the first two months of 2025, the Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic was revised down a further $40/t for March, imposing further downward pressure on f.o.b. values in Trinidad and the US Gulf.

Price Trends

In October, ammonia benchmarks were more or less stable across the board. West of Suez, supply from Algeria was constrained by an ongoing turnaround at one of domestic player Sorfert’s production units. Still, demand from NW Europe remained quiet, although CF was set to receive a 15,000 tonne spot cargo from Hexagon some time in November, reportedly sourced somewhere in the region of $530/t f.o.b. Turkey. While regional supply appeared tight, steadily improving output from Trinidad and the US Gulf could alleviate recent pressures, with many players of the opinion that Yara and Mosaic could agree a $560/t c.fr rollover for November at Tampa as a result.

Price Trends

Ammonia benchmarks west of Suez remain supported by limited availability at key regional export hubs amid increased potential for cargoes to arrive from the East, where availability is far healthier, and prices appear under pressure. The disparity in prices was illustrated towards the end of August, when Nutrien sold 25,000 tonnes to multiple buyers in NW Europe for 1H September delivery at $550-555/t c.fr. When netted back to Trinidad, the price marks a sizeable premium on the $375/t f.o.b. last achieved by Nutrien back in late June, although given that last business in Algeria was fixed at $520/t f.o.b., it appears there is room for delivered sales into Europe to move up further. Regional availability is still limited, with extreme weather conditions in the US Gulf and North Africa potentially impacting supply further over the coming weeks.