Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.

Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher at the start of January, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Conditions at the start of the year mirror late2025, with prices supported by persistent supply tightness from the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which removes an estimated 300– 400,000 tonnes from the market. The unit is expected to return in midtolate January.

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

l The market looks very tight through the end of the year, though some expect supply to improve in Q4. Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks. l Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia Project is now 97% complete, and the producer expects production from the first train in late 2025. There is no information from Gulf Coast Ammonia on when to expect commercial production. l There was an absence of fresh confirmed business into northwest Europe. Still, producers with ammonia capacity in the region are expected to be maximising output given the favourable economics at current spot natural-gas prices at the Dutch TTF.

By the end of October the ammonia market was facing an acute shortage of spot tonnage, reflected in a $60/t jump in the Tampa price for November. The benchmark Tampa price increased for the sixth straight month to its highest since February 2023 as the global ammonia supply crunch deepened. The surge at Tampa was said to be driven by good demand in the US for direct application combined with a lack of supply. Contributing factors included Nutrien shutting down its nitrogen production in Trinidad, potentially removing around 85,000 tonnes/month from the market. So far, there is no suggestion that other producers in Trinidad will follow suit, and they may even benefit from a boost natural-gas supply given the Nutrien outage, although it is unclear whether the spare gas will be directed to ammonia as opposed to other demand sources.

• Ammonia prices look well insulated against any declines over the immediate term, though the upside may be more limited in some regions than others.

Ammonia prices in both hemispheres had levelled out by the end of August, with the exception of a few marginal upticks in some regions on the basis of the latest supply-demand dynamics. All eyes are now on September’s Tampa settlement, which should spell out the extent of the upside pressure set to emerge over the coming weeks.

Ammonia benchmarks on both sides of the Suez were little changed in mid-June with a seemingly balanced supply-demand outlook, although those of a more bullish persuasion continue to support the notion that prices will soon – if they have not done so already – reach a floor. In Algeria, while activity was limited, producer Sorfert was believed to be seeking prices of $410415/t f.o.b. for July delivery, up $10-15/t and equivalent to >$450/t c.fr NW Europe. Imminent tariffs on imports of Russian fertilizers into the EU may trigger an uptick in downstream capacity utilisation across the continent.

• The short term outlook appears balanced for the most part, although more bullish participants seem to be holding sway over market sentiment.