Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Ammonia values have continued to ease across most regions at the end of June, as the first ammonia vessels begin to exit the Gulf since the Iranian conflict began. Iranian ammonia had also begun to flow to India following the US Treasury’s issuance of a 60-day sanctions waiver on 22 June, allowing dollar-denominated trade in Iranian petrochemical products through 21 August. As a result, Indian bids have been heard as low as $750/t c.fr, as buyers benefit from a widening pool of available supply - Iranian, Chinese and renewed Southeast Asian material are all competing for the same business.

• Ammonia prices are expected to maintain their current downward trajectory, with the pace of correction likely to accelerate as the supply picture improves. Confirmed trades at materially lower levels remain limited, but the direction of sentiment is clearly softer.

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• Short-term outlook: Ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure. The PAU turnaround removes a key supply source from an already tight SE Asian market.

Global ammonia benchmarks pushed to fresh highs in April, with a reported trade from Egypt to NW Europe at $905/t c.fr, marking the highest Atlantic level seen since the Middle East conflict began. The move was driven primarily by tightening North African supply, with Algerian offer levels climbing to $840-850/t f.o.b., and Egyptian availability constrained by EBIC being sold out through June, together with limited prompt tonnage from Abu Qir.

• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.

Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher at the start of January, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Conditions at the start of the year mirror late2025, with prices supported by persistent supply tightness from the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which removes an estimated 300– 400,000 tonnes from the market. The unit is expected to return in midtolate January.

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

l The market looks very tight through the end of the year, though some expect supply to improve in Q4. Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks. l Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia Project is now 97% complete, and the producer expects production from the first train in late 2025. There is no information from Gulf Coast Ammonia on when to expect commercial production. l There was an absence of fresh confirmed business into northwest Europe. Still, producers with ammonia capacity in the region are expected to be maximising output given the favourable economics at current spot natural-gas prices at the Dutch TTF.