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Nitrogen+Syngas 394 Mar-Apr 2025

19 March 2025

Market Outlook

Market Outlook

AMMONIA

• Prices look set to come under further pressure moving into March, particularly east of Suez. Prices in the West – specifically in northwest Europe – have enjoyed a partial degree of support through February, though this appears unlikely to hold for much longer.

• In the US, there is pessimism in the market about exports from the 1.3 million t/a Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas, but there is confidence that Woodside Energy’s 1.1 million t/a Beaumont New Ammonia project will come online on time in Q3 of this year.

• In Ukraine, prospects for a restart at one of the two 550,000 t/a units at Odesa Port Plant (OPZ) were dashed after Russian missile attacks on local infrastructure impacted gas supply to the complex.

• Global demand remains limited outside NW Europe, but renewed import appetite could also emerge from India in late March.

UREA

• Prospects for urea prices remain bearish. Every week that India delays coming to the market puts pressure on the market, although producers in many areas have yet to accept the lower bids. The question remains open on whether support from India can be found for March loading, though it seems certain that April tonnage will be required.

• Ice on upper reaches of the Mississippi River have also impacted on US internal demand, though stocks continue to build at New Orleans. Some February shipments have been pushed into March, shifting the import forecast to 585,000 tonnes for February and 529,000 tonners for March. Demand is expected to improve in the coming weeks, but in the meantime NOLA urea prices remain under pressure.

• Chinese prices have rallied due to downstream buying, but the downward pressure of significant supply still exists.

METHANOL

• Methanol demand remained strong in southeast Asia particularly among chemical end-users, while operating issues at some regional production plants helped to keep availability tight and prices higher than anticipated.

• China, conversely, has seen a dip in demand due to maintenance at major MTO plants, and weaker demand from other downstream industries at the same time that production rates remained relatively high, leading to increasing stockpiles, with storage closer to capacity. All of this had the effect of pushing domestic Chinese prices lower.

• European methanol prices had stabilised by the end of February after a decline in the first two months of the year, reaching $350/t after the restart of the 900,000 t/a Tjelbergodden plant. The European methanol market shrank by 2.3% during 2024. US prices were also stable, with loadings from Trinidad down.

Latest in Agricultural

Feedstock allocation for fourth phosphate plant

The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) says that the Ministry of Energy has approved the allocation of feedstock for its fourth phosphate project. This project aims to produce approximately 1.1 million t/a of ammonia and increase the production of phosphate and specialty fertilizers by about 2.5 million t/a, raising the company’s total production capacity to nearly 12 million t/a. This will further solidify Ma’aden’s position as one of the world’s largest producers of phosphate fertilizers, according to a company statement. Ma’aden will now commence engineering studies and obtain the necessary approvals.

Phosphate investment deal

Syria’s Geological and Mineral Resources Authority has signed an agreement with Teryaq, a subsidiary of Serbia’s Exlixir Group, aimed at exporting 1.5 million t/a of phosphate by the end of 2026. The agreement marks a significant step in Syria’s efforts to expand international partnerships and optimise its mineral resources for economic gain. Elixir Group owns the largest phosphoric acid plant in Europe and operates three fertilizer plants in Serbia.

Chatham Rock Phosphate sells Australian subsidiary

Chatham Rock Phosphate has agreed to sell its wholly-owned Australian subsidiary Avenir Makatea Pty Ltd to Austure Industries Pty Ltd for A$1.4 million, including A$900,000 in cash over a 24-month period, and a 20% shareholding in Austure Phosphate AU Pty Ltd, a newly-formed subsidiary of Austure, to establish a mono- and dicalcium phosphate manufacturing plant in Cloncurry. Colin Randall, Chatham Executive Director has been appointed a Director of Austure Phosphate AU Pty Ltd.

Safi floods likely to impact phosphate supply from OCP

Flash floods in the Moroccan port city of Safi killed at least 37 people in December and injured many others, with knock on effects also likely to impact exports from phosphate producer OCP. Jorf Lasfar is the phosphate giant's main export hub for phosphate fertilizers and phosphoric acid, while Safi exports smaller volumes of phosphoric acid, TSP and animal feed products. Phosphate rock exports are largely concentrated at the port of Casablanca further north. OCP produces around 420,000 t/a triple superphosphate and 1.63 t/a phosphoric acid at Safi, as well as around 62,000 t/a dicalcium phosphate and 70,000 t/a monocalcium phosphate.