Tag: Market outlook

• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.

In just its first two months, 2026 had already managed to be a rollercoaster of a year, but at the start of March, the onset of hostilities against Iran by the US and Israel has managed to deliver another huge shock to markets, particularly commodities. Iran’s strategy of widening the conflict to neighbouring states, including by attacking Qatar’s massive LNG facility at Ras Laffan, effectively shutting it down, has sent the LNG market into chaos, and attacks on several tankers and other ships have paralysed maritime insurance markets and by default achieved the long-feared closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.

The global sulphur market’s bullish momentum from late 2025 has firmly carried over into the New Year, with prices pushing forward across most key regions despite a slow return to spot trading after the holiday break. With spot prices now past their 2022 highs and testing levels not seen since the 2008 peak, affordability has become the market’s central theme. The market remains divergent, with some buyers forced to accept the rally due to tight supply, while others, particularly in China, are showing clear signs of demand destruction.

Sulphur prices have risen rapidly in recent months as the market moves into a period of deficit which is likely to last until 2028.

• CRU’s latest global sulphur forecast is for a January price peak before a decline, with the key downside risk being a sharper correction if the supply deficit closes faster than expected. The global sulphur market’s upward momentum has been slowing, with attention shifting to geopolitical risks in Iran. Despite limited physical disruption being reported, the upside risk to prices could be substantial. Following the US bombing of an Iranian nuclear facility back in June, supply from Iran became bottlenecked, despite good production levels, as vessel owners became unwilling to call at ports like Bandar Abbas due to the increased risk.

Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher at the start of January, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Conditions at the start of the year mirror late2025, with prices supported by persistent supply tightness from the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which removes an estimated 300– 400,000 tonnes from the market. The unit is expected to return in midtolate January.

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

Price trends and market outlook, 18th December 2025.

We look ahead at fertilizer industry prospects for the next 12 months, and the key economic and agricultural drivers likely to shape the market.