Tag: Market outlook

We report on selected keynote and commercial presentations from CRU’s 2026 Phosphates+Potash Expoconference.

A review of papers presented at this year’s Sulphur World Symposium, held by The Sulphur Institute (TSI) in Vancouver, Canada this year from April 28 to 30.

• Prices are expected to hold at historically high levels as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. If the situation persists, further price increases are likely, which will only intensify the affordability crisis for global consumers.

• Short-term outlook: Ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure. The PAU turnaround removes a key supply source from an already tight SE Asian market.

• Market sentiment has shifted decisively from bearish to bullish as the conflict in the Middle East has triggers a significant price rally.

Conflict in the Middle East has halted all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively paralysing a region that accounts for 48% of global seaborne sulphur trade. As a result, the sulphur spot market has ground to a halt, with prices notionally holding unchanged in the $490-515/t f.o.b. range simply due to a lack of activity. No spot offers were reported out of the Middle East.

Price trends and market outlook, 26th February 2026. (Important note: this Market Insight was published two days before the start of the latest Middle East conflict.)

• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.

In just its first two months, 2026 had already managed to be a rollercoaster of a year, but at the start of March, the onset of hostilities against Iran by the US and Israel has managed to deliver another huge shock to markets, particularly commodities. Iran’s strategy of widening the conflict to neighbouring states, including by attacking Qatar’s massive LNG facility at Ras Laffan, effectively shutting it down, has sent the LNG market into chaos, and attacks on several tankers and other ships have paralysed maritime insurance markets and by default achieved the long-feared closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.