Section: Market Intelligence

Ammonia sentiment was overtaken this week by the escalating Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left vessels unable to enter or exit the Arabian Gulf. With maritime trade frozen, price indications for prompt Middle East business largely stalled. In normal conditions, the sudden removal of Gulf export flows would point to sharply higher prices, particularly given the already-tight global availability and surging urea values, but participants said the absence of tradable cargoes made it difficult to pin down an indication. The immediate knock-on was felt East of Suez, where the supply shock pulled southeast Asian values back up to around $470-480/t f.o.b. Prevailing length in the market has been reportedly absorbed, with buying interest strongest from east Asia and India.

The global sulphur market’s bullish momentum from late 2025 has firmly carried over into the New Year, with prices pushing forward across most key regions despite a slow return to spot trading after the holiday break. With spot prices now past their 2022 highs and testing levels not seen since the 2008 peak, affordability has become the market’s central theme. The market remains divergent, with some buyers forced to accept the rally due to tight supply, while others, particularly in China, are showing clear signs of demand destruction.

• CRU’s latest global sulphur forecast is for a January price peak before a decline, with the key downside risk being a sharper correction if the supply deficit closes faster than expected. The global sulphur market’s upward momentum has been slowing, with attention shifting to geopolitical risks in Iran. Despite limited physical disruption being reported, the upside risk to prices could be substantial. Following the US bombing of an Iranian nuclear facility back in June, supply from Iran became bottlenecked, despite good production levels, as vessel owners became unwilling to call at ports like Bandar Abbas due to the increased risk.

Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher at the start of January, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Conditions at the start of the year mirror late2025, with prices supported by persistent supply tightness from the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which removes an estimated 300– 400,000 tonnes from the market. The unit is expected to return in midtolate January.

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

Price trends and market outlook, 18th December 2025.

Price trends and market outlook, 23rd October 2025

Sulphur prices advanced further in October, more than expected, supported by the supply towards the end of summer becoming restricted, with a number of non-mainstream sources facing logistical constraints.

• Russia is set to impose a temporary ban on sulphur exports, covering liquid, granulated, and lump material, to ensure domestic supply. The measure will be in effect until 31 December 2025. CRU expects Russia to return to the export market in 2026 Q1. On the other hand, exports from Iranian ports are set to come back not only for Iranian production but also for Turkmenistan.

l The market looks very tight through the end of the year, though some expect supply to improve in Q4. Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks. l Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia Project is now 97% complete, and the producer expects production from the first train in late 2025. There is no information from Gulf Coast Ammonia on when to expect commercial production. l There was an absence of fresh confirmed business into northwest Europe. Still, producers with ammonia capacity in the region are expected to be maximising output given the favourable economics at current spot natural-gas prices at the Dutch TTF.