Section: CRUSU Market Intelligence

• Sulphur prices have been revised higher in the latest forecast after supply from the Middle East was lower than expected in February, and buyers with uncovered demand were forced to chase prices upwards. UAE sulphur exports normally fall at the start of the year due to scheduled maintenance, but sales in February this year were 200,000 tonnes short of what is typical. Prices may climb more than expected as buyers scramble to cover their shorts. If supply is slower to return than currently anticipated, momentum may push prices even higher in the short term.

Global sulphur benchmarks rallied at the end of February, underpinned by strong demand in Indonesia and stock drawdowns in China as fresh European sanctions on Russia targeted the port of Ust-Luga. Chinese buyers paid up to $225t/t c.fr for a cargo, with unconfirmed rumours of business at even higher levels. However, delivered prices still lag domestic port spot prices in China, which are now assessed at a delivered-price equivalent of around $242/t c.fr. China’s delivered sulphur price jumped significantly as port inventories declined, and new arrivals were limited. Only two new cargoes were reported in the last week of February, one from a mainstream source into southern China at $205/t c.fr, and the second at $225/t c.fr by a phosphate producer for the Yangtze River. The sulphur port spot transaction price is reported at around 2,0402,050 yuan/t FCA ($281-283/t), with the low-end up $26/t and high-end up $25/t compared with previous settlements. That port price indicates delivered values at around $242/t c.fr, which is $17/t higher than the import price on the Yangtze. Phosphate producers need to purchase more sulphur to meet the increased buying activity in northeastern market and the improving spring application season demand in northern China. Still, market sales availability is limited, as most port tonnes are held by traders instead of end-users, while traders are selling limited quantities now to push prices higher. Chinese total port inventory dropped to 1.89 million tonnes by 26 February 2025. The quantity at Yangtze river ports declined 59,000 tonnes to 633,000 tonnes, while Dafeng port inventory decreased 20,000 tonnes to 450,000 tonnes.

Sulphur prices may remain stable before decreasing on muted demand and transactions may increase in frequency contributing to price decreases in the first half of 2025.

Global sulphur prices were mostly assessed flat in mid-January, with only slight changes for China, Indonesia and India, while the first quarter contracts for the Middle East, North Africa and Tampa increased from the previous quarter. Overall, the number of transactions taking place globally has declined as subdued demand has limited trading activity in most delivered markets. The current sulphur price environment has been shaped by the combination of rising Chinese demand and higher Middle East f.o.b. prices in the second half of last year. As a result, some consumer markets such as Indonesia and India have been subject to upward pressure in order to remain attractive destinations. But demand remained lacklustre across delivered markets, leaving prices relatively stable.

Global sulphur prices are expected to continue rising in certain regions but at a reduced rate of increase. Recent higher spot prices in the Middle East are likely to carry over to other markets. Sulphur affordability in key markets such as China remains good, reinforced by recent increases in phosphate prices.

Global sulphur prices underwent increases in some key benchmark markets during October, but spot activity nevertheless remained muted, with demand subdued and availability tight. Market participants continue to closely track geopolitical developments.

Muntajat announced its QSP for September at $125/t f.o.b., an increase of $19/t from its August price. This was following its tender earlier this week, which market sources indicated to have achieved at or around $130s/t f.o.b. Over the past two weeks, KPC in Kuwait closed two sales tenders, with both indicated awarded in the high $120s/t f.o.b. Middle East spot f.o.b. prices are at their highest level since March 2023 and have climbed 58% over the past two months.

At the end of August, the Qatar Chemical and Petrochemical Marketing and Distribution Company (Muntajat) tendered for 35,000 tonnes of sulphur for September loading from Ras Laffan, with offer prices reported at or around $130s/t f.o.b., according to market sources. Bids were received at multiple levels, with market participants initially anticipating awards around the mid-$120s/t f.o.b. The tender result was higher than market expectations and would equate to delivered prices to key Asian markets at $150-155/t c.fr. But prices in China and Indonesia remained lower this week at around $140-145/t c.fr, with India at $145-150/t c.fr. Prices have increased steeply since Muntajat’s 25 June session, which was indicated awarded in the mid-$80s/t f.o.b.. and Muntajat posted its Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) for September at $125/t f.o.b., up $19/t from $106/t f.o.b. in August. This represents the highest QSP since March 2023 at $133/t f.o.b., and reflects delivered levels to China nearing $150/t c.fr at current freight rates. Tight supply and strong downstream demand have pushed tender prices higher. Muntajat tenders were previously awarded at $92/t f.o.b. in April, up from $88/t in March and the low $80s/t f.o.b. in February.

Sulphur prices are expected to recover from declines in May and June and continue climbing over the coming months, though good availability will limit upside.

Sulphur prices in China are expected to recover with downstream demand anticipated to surge in the second half of the year and good affordability to support raw materials purchasing. Chinese nitrogen, phosphate, and potash prices have surged, driven by heightened demand for the summer corn application season. In particular, average 11-44 MAP prices jumped 16% from $390/t ex-works to $463/t in Hubei province. However, sulphur prices have taken a while to follow the trend on phosphate prices. Port prices have fluctuated in the range of $126-130/t c.fr since late March, and import prices fell from a high of $112/t c.fr to $100/t c.fr, capped by high port inventory and sufficient supply. Port inventories in China remain around 2.8 million tonnes, well above the 2022 average of 1.4 million tonnes and the 2023 average of 2.07 million tonnes. These elevated stock levels limited the upside for prices in China and provided buyers with options. At the start of July, Sinopec’s Puguang, the largest sulphur producer in China, increased its sulphur sales prices at Wanzhou port up $4/t RMB980/t, while its factory price at Dazhou was up RMB20/t at RMB950/t ex-works. These prices are considerably down from RMB1,600/t in December 2022 and RMB 2,945/t from mid-June 2022 and are the lowest since July 2023, but are still up from a low of RMB605-655/t at the end of August 2020.