Section: CRUSU Market Intelligence

• The global sulphur market outlook is flat to soft in the near term: most

Most key sulphur import markets remained stagnant in late August due to weak demand. A premium is being paid for cargoes with guaranteed delivery schedules, driven by ongoing logistical risks in the Middle East. This has firmed prices in North America and Indonesia, but the potential return of supply from Russia and Kazakhstan may add some downward pressure.

The global sulphur market has entered a holding pattern, as a wave of bearish sentiment has so far failed to move stubbornly high spot prices. The departure of a significant volume of product from the Middle East has emboldened buyers and shifted market sentiment firmly towards bearish, but at time of writing this has so far failed to translate into lower prices. With sellers in no hurry to lower prices and spot availability still tight, the market has stalled as both sides wait for the other to blink first.

• The market has paused as bearish buyer sentiment has not yet translated into lower spot prices. The direction of the next major deal is now the critical test. This will either initiate a downward price correction, validating buyer caution, or force a recognition of the market’s underlying tightness and bring purchasers back to the table at current levels.

We are closing this survey shortly, so here is your chance to make a difference.

• Prices are expected to hold at historically high levels as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. If the situation persists, further price increases are likely, which will only intensify the affordability crisis for global consumers.

Sulphur continued to break historic records in most key international markets at the start of May as the scarcity of spot supply propelled prices higher, which triggered production cuts at some downstream markets, and increased costs in other industrial sectors. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which halted the flow of Middle East supply, has forced desperate buyers to compete for the limited available spot cargoes, primarily from North America. Although fresh transactions were limited, export and delivered prices climbed higher, and market sentiment remained jittery. QatarEnergy hiked its sulphur price to $740/t f.o.b., a new record high for this contract since its inception in August 2013.

The US and Israel attacks on Iran and the Iranian response have thrown commodity markets into chaos, with sulphur and sulphuric acid particularly affected.

• Market sentiment has shifted decisively from bearish to bullish as the conflict in the Middle East has triggers a significant price rally.

Conflict in the Middle East has halted all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively paralysing a region that accounts for 48% of global seaborne sulphur trade. As a result, the sulphur spot market has ground to a halt, with prices notionally holding unchanged in the $490-515/t f.o.b. range simply due to a lack of activity. No spot offers were reported out of the Middle East.