Global sulphur prices are expected to continue rising in certain regions but at a reduced rate of increase. Recent higher spot prices in the Middle East are likely to carry over to other markets. Sulphur affordability in key markets such as China remains good, reinforced by recent increases in phosphate prices.
An ammonium nitrate industry geared around producing explosives for the mining sector is now being joined by a major urea project and a number of renewables-based products for export of green ammonia.
Beyond its use in the manufacture of sulphuric acid, sulphur dioxide also has many industrial uses, especially in the food, paper, pharmaceutical and refining industries.
Ammonia prices could remain stable for the duration of October, with any further increases likely to be capped by a lack of demand. The outlook for November is more positive for buyers, with prices set to ease off once turnarounds at key export hubs are concluded.
Market snapshot, 17th October 2024 Urea : Prices firmed in a thin market in mid-October. Middle East values shot up $20/t on expectations that Indian Potash Limited (IPL) would announce another tender to secure tonnes for India in December. If correct, this will follow hot on the heels of the latest Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) purchase tender for 0.56 million tonnes of urea. Sohar International Urea & Chemical Industries (SIUCI) sold a November cargo at $390/t f.o.b. with further trader interest reported at $385/t f.o.b. This demand was probably generated by traders positioning themselves for IPL’s expected tender, given that other markets generally remained quiet.
We look at the future of polyhalite mining and its use as a fertilizer following Anglo American’s announcement that investment in its UK-Based Woodsmith mine will fall to zero in 2026 under current plans.
Significant changes to the level and location of sulphur inventory over the last two years have caused swings in short-term supply availability. Inventory plays a necessary role in balancing the sulphur market but exactly when, where, how, and why inventory enters the market can trigger a diverse range of price responses. In this insight article, CRU’s Peter Harrisson looks at how inventory change influences sulphur availability and pricing.
The dry bulk market is forecast to cool, after a year of high freight rates driven by demand shocks. Should ships return to the Red Sea during 2025, then the market will weaken even more. This development, explains BIMCO shipping analyst Filipe Gouveia, would particularly affect the supramax and handysize vessels typically used in fertilizer shipping.
The prospect of a drastic expansion in potassium sulphate production has been linked to a plethora of projects in Australia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. These have sought to take advantage of market tightness and high price premiums. Yet investor interest in supposedly promising projects has waned over the last few years. In this insight article, CRU’s Alexander Chreky explains the reasons behind the high project failure rate, as well as highlighting some limited successes.
Market snapshot, 15th August 2024 Urea: A stand-off between buyers and sellers has left prices fairly flat in recent weeks with little liquidity. India's latest import tender was, however, finally confirmed for 29th August closing. The tender’s long shipment window allows NFL to secure tonnages through to end-October and took the market by surprise. This is a bearish signal that should increase dramatically the volume offered to NFL. The tender could exclude volumes from China with supply instead focused on the Middle East and Russia.