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Policy decisions and geopolitical shocks are now the dominant drivers of sulphur and phosphate fertilizer markets, overriding more traditional seasonal fundamentals. The conflict in the Middle East, including the escalation around Iran, has tightened sulphur availability and lifted costs sharply, while China’s export restrictions continue to restrict global phosphate supply.

The Zambian government has introduced a new permit system to manage the export of sulphuric acid, which came into effect on 27 March, 2026, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry. The move comes at a time of significant exceptionally high prices and sourcing challenges in the global sulphur market, adding another layer of tightness for regional consumers. The Ministry stated that the measure is designed to correct a "critical market imbalance" and ensure supply for the country's domestic industries. The system aims to safeguard local downstream sectors that rely on the acid, while still ensuring that the needs of the export market are met, it said.