Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

l The market looks very tight through the end of the year, though some expect supply to improve in Q4. Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks. l Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia Project is now 97% complete, and the producer expects production from the first train in late 2025. There is no information from Gulf Coast Ammonia on when to expect commercial production. l There was an absence of fresh confirmed business into northwest Europe. Still, producers with ammonia capacity in the region are expected to be maximising output given the favourable economics at current spot natural-gas prices at the Dutch TTF.

By the end of October the ammonia market was facing an acute shortage of spot tonnage, reflected in a $60/t jump in the Tampa price for November. The benchmark Tampa price increased for the sixth straight month to its highest since February 2023 as the global ammonia supply crunch deepened. The surge at Tampa was said to be driven by good demand in the US for direct application combined with a lack of supply. Contributing factors included Nutrien shutting down its nitrogen production in Trinidad, potentially removing around 85,000 tonnes/month from the market. So far, there is no suggestion that other producers in Trinidad will follow suit, and they may even benefit from a boost natural-gas supply given the Nutrien outage, although it is unclear whether the spare gas will be directed to ammonia as opposed to other demand sources.

• Ammonia prices look well insulated against any declines over the immediate term, though the upside may be more limited in some regions than others.

Ammonia prices in both hemispheres had levelled out by the end of August, with the exception of a few marginal upticks in some regions on the basis of the latest supply-demand dynamics. All eyes are now on September’s Tampa settlement, which should spell out the extent of the upside pressure set to emerge over the coming weeks.

Ammonia benchmarks on both sides of the Suez were little changed in mid-June with a seemingly balanced supply-demand outlook, although those of a more bullish persuasion continue to support the notion that prices will soon – if they have not done so already – reach a floor. In Algeria, while activity was limited, producer Sorfert was believed to be seeking prices of $410415/t f.o.b. for July delivery, up $10-15/t and equivalent to >$450/t c.fr NW Europe. Imminent tariffs on imports of Russian fertilizers into the EU may trigger an uptick in downstream capacity utilisation across the continent.

• The short term outlook appears balanced for the most part, although more bullish participants seem to be holding sway over market sentiment.

• Continuing oversupply means that ammonia prices should continue to come under pressure moving into 2H April, though it remains to be seen just how much further values in Asia can decline before producers begin to shutter output.

In mid-April, Ammonia prices both east and west of Suez remained firmly oriented to the downside, with supply still heavily outweighing demand and suppliers scrambling to place excess tonnage. Bearish market sentiment was exemplified by a Trammo sale to OCP at $415/t c.fr Morocco, $20/t short of Tampa’s c.fr settlement for April and around $44/t down on February.

Support for ammonia prices in markets east of Suez eroded during February. The ongoing bubble of support seen in NW Europe remained just about intact, though news of further declines at Tampa for March and slumping natural-gas prices should begin to eat away at any remaining support in the West. After declining $70/t during the first two months of 2025, the Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic was revised down a further $40/t for March, imposing further downward pressure on f.o.b. values in Trinidad and the US Gulf.

• Prices look set to come under further pressure moving into March, particularly east of Suez. Prices in the West – specifically in northwest Europe – have enjoyed a partial degree of support through February, though this appears unlikely to hold for much longer.