Section: CRUNS Comment

Global nitrogen and methanol markets are currently in the grip of a crisis in feedstock prices. Mostly this is about Europe’s dependence on imported natural gas, but – particularly on the methanol side – it has also been exacerbated by high coal prices in China, where heavy rains have led to flooding in Shanxi province, the source of one third of China’s coal. These have followed similar floods in Henan in July, and come at a time when China is facing power rationing due to a lack of electricity supply. The world economy’s long-awaited bounce back from the covid pandemic has also led to a general global surge in energy demand, and consequently higher oil and gas prices.

While the past couple of years have seen considerable excitement and momentum concerning the use of blue/green ammonia as a fuel, an announcement in August by Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world, has served once again as a useful reminder that ammonia is not the only candidate molecule. Maersk said on August 24th that it is ordering eight methanol powered vessels from South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries at a total cost of $1.4 billion. Each giant ship will have the capacity to carry 16,000 twenty-foot [container] equivalent units (TEUs).

At a time when green (or maybe blue) ammonia is being looked to as a way of reducing carbon emissions, substituting for hydrocarbons in a variety of potential uses, a conference held at the start of June was a reminder that nitrogen, its neighbour on the Periodic Table, is by no means off the hook on the environmental front. The Eighth Global Nitrogen Conference – held over from last year because of Covid-19, and this year held virtually, as most events are for the time being – was the latest in a series of tri-annual meetings convened by the International Nitrogen Initiative (INI), with support from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the German Ministry of the Environment. The INI grew out of the 1979 UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and 1999 Gothenburg Protocol, and is concerned specifically with ‘reactive nitrogen’ (i.e. nitrogen not tightly bound to itself in a triple bond, which makes up 78% of the air around us).

Judging by the pages of the project announcements in our news section, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the ammonia and methanol industries were all running off hydrogen generated from electrolysis, and that we had already entered an era of ‘clean’ chemical generation which did not require fossil fuels as a feedstock. Of course, while companies can naturally be forgiven for wanting to put the best public face on their green credentials, it does obscure the fact that for the moment 99% of syngas generation comes from natural gas, coal, and some coke or naphtha.

The ammonia industry seems to have quite a buzz about it at the moment. As can be glimpsed in our Nitrogen Industry News section this issue, the number of proposed green ammonia production sites continues to grow, as does interest in ammonia as a hydrogen or energy carrier, while the shipping sector continues to seriously consider ammonia as a green fuel candidate for the longer term. The latter prospect could see current ammonia demand double by 2050, although as our article on sustainable nitrogen production on page 22 notes, whether enough renewable power will exist by then to generate that must be seriously doubted.

It can’t have escaped anyone’s notice that the question of the carbon intensity of ammonia and downstream nitrogen compound production has been one of the main industry talking points for the past year. Everyone seems to be talking about ammonia of different colours – green ammonia, blue ammonia, and all shades of turquoise in between. If you are confused, it may not be surprising, as these words have come to cover a wide variety of different methods and technologies for producing ammonia, and their green credentials consequently come in a whole range of different shades.

This year has been one of the stranger ones in my life, and I’m sure yours as well. Looking back from the perspective of late October 2020, I had no idea at the start of the year how much time I was going to be spending in my study rather than in the office or a hotel! Covid has forced major lifestyle changes upon all of us this year, and it has definitely accelerated some trends that were already making themselves felt, but which have suddenly become a major part of our forced adaptation to strange times. I haven’t used cash since March, for example, except at one stubborn local takeaway that can’t take contactless payments. Perhaps the greatest of these changes has been enforced remote working, and that has meant looking at digital technologies and the way we can use them. Even those of us who are, shall we say, not digital natives or early adopters, have had to become intimate with both the potential and the pitfalls of Zoom, Teams and all of the rest.

It’ s not a very worthy thought, I’m afraid, but I must admit it was my first reaction on seeing the terrible pictures from Beirut on August 4th. The explosion that ripped through the centre of the historic and much troubled Mediterranean city was captured from many different smartphone cameras, and watching the expanding vapour cloud from the supersonic shockwave, and witnessing the sheer size of the explosion, it seemed immediately evident to me that it had to be a high explosive responsible, not the fireworks that could be glimpsed sparkling beforehand in the smoke from the burning warehouse. The rising cloud of orange-brown nitrogen dioxide that followed the blast was the clincher – it looked like it was ammonium nitrate yet again.

At the end of last year, in our November/ December 2019 issue, I remarked upon the fresh impetus that the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) target of reducing carbon emissions from shipping by 50% in 2050 (compared to a 2008 baseline) had given to the idea of using ammonia as a shipping fuel. This year, in spite of You Know What, things seem to have, if anything, accelerated.

The devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to be felt around the world. At time of writing, nearly 4 million cases have been recorded, and at least a quarter of a million people have died, with the suspicion of many more, either from accidental or deliberate undercounting. Figures for excess deaths above a normal seasonal baseline show that places such as Turkey, Ecuador and Indonesia have probably been far worse affected than the official statistics show. There are nevertheless finally hopeful signs that Europe, so far the worst affected region, is beginning to follow the pattern of East Asia and Oceania and that cases are falling. The infection also seems to have peaked in North America, though in the US there is a long tail of infections. Elsewhere, cases are still rising in countries such as Brazil and Mexico.