Section: CRUNS Comment

Nitrogen+Syngas went to press just a few days before Donald Trump’s swearing-in as the next president of the United States. While it is sometimes difficult to sort the truth from the hyperbole in his public pronouncements, nevertheless, if taken at face value, they would seem to indicate that we may be in for a turbulent four years in commodity markets in particular. While he is an avowed military non-interventionist, on the economic policy side he has emerged as a firm believer in the power of tariffs to alter markets in the favour of the US, and has promised 20% tariffs on all goods entering the US, potentially rising to 25% for Canada and Mexico, and 60% for his particular bugbear, China, sparking a scramble for wholesalers to stock up in the last few weeks of the Biden presidency. Trump previously raised tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US to 20% during his first term, and the Biden administration made no attempt to reverse this, and even added some additional ones, for example 20% on Russian and Moroccan phosphate imports.

While underlying supply and demand criteria continue to set floors and ceilings for nitrogen and other syngas derived products, political events as ever have the potential to derail all calculations. While much attention has focused on the US election, the escalating crisis in the Middle East continues to have the potential to threaten fertilizer trade in multiple ways. As this issue was going to press, Israel had just launched its retaliatory missile strike on Tehran, on October 26th, the latest in a series of tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran, in particular an Iranian missile strike on Israel on October 1st. The Iranian government appeared to be downplaying the results as “limited”, but said that it considered itself “entitled and obligated to defend itself”.

In our May/June issue I discussed the race to be the next major green shipping fuel, in which methanol and ammonia both remain significant contenders, but which methanol appeared to be pulling ahead in. But more recently, a few stories from the past few weeks have left me not quite as sure as I was about that. Firstly, there’s the news in our Syngas News section this issue that the FlagshipONE green methanol project in Sweden is being delayed and possibly abandoned, because demand for green methanol for shipping has not actually materialised as fast as was anticipated.

With all of the focus on low carbon ammonia and methanol developments, one could occasionally be forgiven for forgetting that most of the syngas industry relies upon natural gas as a feedstock, and that gas pricing and availability remain the key determinants of profitability for producers. As our article this issue discusses, even low carbon ammonia is likely to be largely based on natural gas, albeit with carbon capture and storage, at least for the remainder of this decade.

While there has been a lot of talk about decarbonising ammonia and methanol production, for as long as blue and green production is more expensive than conventional production, uptake will be dependent upon markets which are prepared to pay a premium for such chemicals, perhaps because they have no other reasonable choice, given environmental mandates. One sector above all has dominated the prospects for medium term demand for low carbon ammonia and methanol alike, and that is shipping.

Nitrogen magazine, as it originally began life in It has been a tough few years for the European nitrogen industry, and between covid, gas price spikes and Russian sanctions, not all companies have weathered the storm. Now that the initial shock of the sky-high ammonia prices that the closure of the Black Sea and the cutting off of almost 40% of Europe’s gas supplies has passed, and the world gas and ammonia markets have largely adjusted to the new reality, prices are coming back down. But it seems that in its wake it may leave quite a different European nitrogen industry from the one that existed in 2019.

We are very pleased to be able to tell you that, as of this issue, Nitrogen+Syngas magazine has a new publisher. Or rather, an old publisher, as the magazine is now once again part of the CRU Group.

While the world’s attention has been grabbed by the terrible situation in the Middle East, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to drag on. Of particular concern in recent months has been the deal to allow export of grain from Odessa, which lapsed in July 2023, a year after it first began. The deal had allowed 33 million tonnes of grain to be exported, around 60% of it to the developing world. However, Russia had always insisted that continuing with the deal was contingent on (a) a resumption of Russian ammonia exports via Odessa and (b) removing SWIFT payment restrictions on the Rosselkhozbank agricultural bank, allowing easier export of fertilizer. Fertilizers remain exempt from sanctions on Russia, but the difficulty in securing payment, the closure of the ammonia pipeline to the Black Sea, and high maritime insurance rates for traversing the Black Sea have made exports much more difficult. And although Ukraine continues to export grain, now mostly via rail to ports like Ismail and Reni on the River Danube, Russia has done its best to disrupt this, striking ports and warehouses and laying mines in shipping lanes. Around 300,000 tonnes of grain has been destroyed, according to Ukraine, as well as up to three ships hit by mines and one possibly by a missile on November 8th. Furthermore, bottlenecks in rail transit and port capacity and the difficulty in getting ships to the ports mean that actual volumes of grain exported are considerably reduced, with only around 700,000 tonnes exported via the Danube Ports from August to the start of November.

The closure of CF Industries’ ammonia plant at Billingham, Teesside (see Industry News, page 8) marks the end of a long era for UK fertilizer manufacture. The facility was the last operating ammonia plant in the country, following CF’s decision to permanently close its site at Ince in Cheshire in June last year. Going forward, Billingham will now rely on imported ammonia as a feedstock to run the nitric acid and 625,000 t/a ammonium nitrate plants on the site.

While demand for ammonia remains – for now at least – strongly tied to fertilizer and farming, over the three decades that I’ve edited this publication, methanol’s story has been a very different one, with a succession of major new slices of demand coming every few years from new applications that flare up and then mature or even drop away again. For a while in the 1990s it was MTBE, the oxygenated fuel additive that had a brief flourish in the US before being shut down by leaking fuel tanks leaching into ground water. Then there was dimethyl ether (DME) as a blendstock for LPG, and methanol itself directly blended into gasoline in China to keep up with soaring vehicle fuel demand. More recently, methanol to olefins (MTO) has added almost another 25% of demand over and above existing chemical and fuel uses. But as the world cracks down on coal production and use, China’s attempt to use methanol as a way of using domestic coal to replace imported oil seems to have passed its high water mark and begun to recede.