Section: CRUNS Comment

The start of the new year has shown that 2026 is already proving to be a very eventful one, beginning with the US abduction of Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro, which has prompted questions over production at the country’s ailing nitrogen assets, as well as the potential for a future boost to gas supplies to Trinidad. Meanwhile the Iranian government faces its most sustained public challenge since the 1979 revolution, and possible US military intervention, threatening continued exports from the country. In Europe, the future of fertilizers’ inclusion in the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been thrown into doubt barely a week after the new regulations came into force, as France and Italy pushed for an exemption for crop nutrient imports.

As I write this editorial, the 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – aka COP-30 – is taking place in Brazil. It is fair to say that the attempt to try to restrict a large greenhouse gas-driven temperature rise across the planet has become one of the defining issues of our age, and particularly for an energy-intensive industry such as our own, responsible as it is for up to 2% of global carbon and carbon equivalent emissions. The move towards lower carbon intensity production of hydrogen, ammonia and methanol, via carbon dioxide capture and sequestration, gasification of biomass or waste, or electrolysis of water using renewable power, has come to dominate our news coverage, and in this issue we also carry articles on the state of play of both ‘blue’ and ‘green’ ammonia production, as well as technology for ‘cracking’ ammonia back to hydrogen and nitrogen for its potential use as a hydrogen carrier.

At the end of this year, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will move from its transitional phase into its ‘definitive’ phase, whereby the carbon costs of goods entering the EU will need to be priced in. CBAM requires suppliers to calculate the carbon emissions of their fertilizer (and other, e.g. steel) products, including indirect emissions, for example from electricity consumed in the process, and emissions of precursor or raw materials. They will then need to purchase CBAM certificates to cover embedded emissions above the established free allowance benchmark rates determined by the European Commission: 1.57 tonnes CO2e/tonne ammonia and 0.23 tCO2e/t nitric acid.

Ju ne saw fertilizer markets – urea markets in particular – thrown into chaos by the widening of hostilities in the Middle East. Israel’s and then the United States’ strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the retaliatory attacks on Israel and Qatar for a while held out the potential for the conflict to widen, perhaps even leading to attempts to close the straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, something not seen since the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s when Iraq tried to cripple Iran’s oil exports during the eight year Iran-Iraq War.

Wi th future demand for both low carbon methanol and ammonia depending to a considerable extent on their take-up as low carbon shipping fuels, recent developments in the EU and IMO may help accelerate that process, as detailed in CRU’s most recent Low Carbon Hydrogen and Ammonia Outlook.

P r esident Trump’s flurry of activity in his first month of office has not only upended the global political order that has existed, more or less, since the US rearranged it to its satisfaction in 1945, but has also had a seismic impact on world trade. How the various strands of US policy will play out remains highly uncertain, but some clear trends are beginning to emerge.

Nitrogen+Syngas went to press just a few days before Donald Trump’s swearing-in as the next president of the United States. While it is sometimes difficult to sort the truth from the hyperbole in his public pronouncements, nevertheless, if taken at face value, they would seem to indicate that we may be in for a turbulent four years in commodity markets in particular. While he is an avowed military non-interventionist, on the economic policy side he has emerged as a firm believer in the power of tariffs to alter markets in the favour of the US, and has promised 20% tariffs on all goods entering the US, potentially rising to 25% for Canada and Mexico, and 60% for his particular bugbear, China, sparking a scramble for wholesalers to stock up in the last few weeks of the Biden presidency. Trump previously raised tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US to 20% during his first term, and the Biden administration made no attempt to reverse this, and even added some additional ones, for example 20% on Russian and Moroccan phosphate imports.

While underlying supply and demand criteria continue to set floors and ceilings for nitrogen and other syngas derived products, political events as ever have the potential to derail all calculations. While much attention has focused on the US election, the escalating crisis in the Middle East continues to have the potential to threaten fertilizer trade in multiple ways. As this issue was going to press, Israel had just launched its retaliatory missile strike on Tehran, on October 26th, the latest in a series of tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran, in particular an Iranian missile strike on Israel on October 1st. The Iranian government appeared to be downplaying the results as “limited”, but said that it considered itself “entitled and obligated to defend itself”.

In our May/June issue I discussed the race to be the next major green shipping fuel, in which methanol and ammonia both remain significant contenders, but which methanol appeared to be pulling ahead in. But more recently, a few stories from the past few weeks have left me not quite as sure as I was about that. Firstly, there’s the news in our Syngas News section this issue that the FlagshipONE green methanol project in Sweden is being delayed and possibly abandoned, because demand for green methanol for shipping has not actually materialised as fast as was anticipated.

With all of the focus on low carbon ammonia and methanol developments, one could occasionally be forgiven for forgetting that most of the syngas industry relies upon natural gas as a feedstock, and that gas pricing and availability remain the key determinants of profitability for producers. As our article this issue discusses, even low carbon ammonia is likely to be largely based on natural gas, albeit with carbon capture and storage, at least for the remainder of this decade.