Nitrogen+Syngas 398 Nov-Dec 2025
21 November 2025
Good COP, bad COP?
“China’s large scale commitment to investment in clean technologies has put it in the driving seat…”
As I write this editorial, the 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – aka COP-30 – is taking place in Brazil. It is fair to say that the attempt to try to restrict a large greenhouse gas-driven temperature rise across the planet has become one of the defining issues of our age, and particularly for an energy-intensive industry such as our own, responsible as it is for up to 2% of global carbon and carbon equivalent emissions. The move towards lower carbon intensity production of hydrogen, ammonia and methanol, via carbon dioxide capture and sequestration, gasification of biomass or waste, or electrolysis of water using renewable power, has come to dominate our news coverage, and in this issue we also carry articles on the state of play of both ‘blue’ and ‘green’ ammonia production, as well as technology for ‘cracking’ ammonia back to hydrogen and nitrogen for its potential use as a hydrogen carrier.
But even though global temperatures have already reached the aspirational limit of a 1.5 degree Celsius rise over pre-industrial averages, the attitudes towards the issue of climate change of the two largest emitters, and the two most powerful global economies – the United States and China – seem to have diverged sharply. Although it is frequently criticised for its reliance on coal-fired power generation, China has acknowledged the problem and committed itself to tackling it in a way that perhaps only a large, centrally-planned economy can do. Renewable power now makes up one third of China’s electricity generation, and China represents 32% of all renewable power worldwide, and will represent 60% of incremental additions over the next few years. It is responsible for 70% of electric vehicle production, and EVs are now half of all new car registrations in China. Though these industries certainly have their problems, China’s large scale commitment to investment in clean technologies has put it in the driving seat in these areas of the new economy. And the investment seems to be finally bearing fruit; a recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed that Chinese CO2 emissions appear to have peaked and in fact have been falling for the past 18 months.
Conversely, under the Trump administration, the United States has turned its back on many of its previous commitments and settled back to ‘business as usual’, cushioned as it is by its self sufficiency in oil and gas production, driven by US technological advancements in fracking and horizontal well drilling. The US has declined to attend COP-30 at an official level, and in the absence of the US, many have begun to ask if the COP summits are worthwhile. The difficulty remains that the costs of tackling climate change are in the here and now, while the benefits are more diffuse and come only in the future. However, as more energy enters the world’s weather systems and storms become worse and more frequent, there are also steadily increasing costs in the present.
But perhaps the difference between the US and China is not quite as sharp as it appears. The US has, in fact, already made considerable steps to tackle emissions. US carbon emissions per capita have actually fallen by 25% since the 1990 baseline of the Kyoto agreement, primarily because of the replacement of coal-fired power generation by less carbon intensive natural gas, as well as a considerable uptake in renewables. Furthermore, via the clean energy subsidies offered in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the US has become the leading country for investment in blue ammonia production, though as we report this issue, some of these projects now face the uncertainty of US policy changes. Some states, such as California, Oregon and Washington, continue to push a green agenda, and even Texas now draws 40% of its energy from renewable sources.
Multinational agreements are difficult and frustrating, and have become unfashionable in an era where national leaders have pushed more nationalistic policies and globalisation is in retreat. However, there is no other way of tackling a global problem than via a global agreement.
