Section: CRUFI Market Intelligence

Market snapshot, 2nd January 2025

Market snapshot, 17th October 2024 Urea : Prices firmed in a thin market in mid-October. Middle East values shot up $20/t on expectations that Indian Potash Limited (IPL) would announce another tender to secure tonnes for India in December. If correct, this will follow hot on the heels of the latest Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) purchase tender for 0.56 million tonnes of urea. Sohar International Urea & Chemical Industries (SIUCI) sold a November cargo at $390/t f.o.b. with further trader interest reported at $385/t f.o.b. This demand was probably generated by traders positioning themselves for IPL’s expected tender, given that other markets generally remained quiet.

Market snapshot, 15th August 2024 Urea: A stand-off between buyers and sellers has left prices fairly flat in recent weeks with little liquidity. India's latest import tender was, however, finally confirmed for 29th August closing. The tender’s long shipment window allows NFL to secure tonnages through to end-October and took the market by surprise. This is a bearish signal that should increase dramatically the volume offered to NFL. The tender could exclude volumes from China with supply instead focused on the Middle East and Russia.

Market as of 20th June 2024. Urea: Prices remain stable while the market awaits clear price direction on whether to hold current f.o.b. levels or to push higher.

Urea: Prices continued their global decline in mid-April, including at New Orleans. The notable exception was Brazil where prices firmed due to buyer interest in the market for May and beyond.

Urea. As February ended, urea prices found support in the US and Brazil while Europe remained subdued and Egypt struggled to find buyers. New Orleans was the one bright spot in the urea market – with NOLA prices benefitting from the meeting of suppliers and buyers at the TFI’s domestic conference. With positive sentiment all round, prices moved up $30/st, peaking at $390/st f.o.b. for March.

Urea: December began on a positive note with a flurry of Egyptian urea sales and firmer prices for delivery to Brazil. The increase in values was short lived, however, and piecemeal demand in Europe was insufficient to halt the downward trend. By mid-December, buying interest from Brazil had fizzled out, although sellers breathed a sigh of relief when India’s NFL floated a new import tender on 21st December.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media. Urea: Prices in general fell further in late October. Suppliers in most regions were forced to accept lower than expected net-backs due to low import demand and high producer inventories. India was the exception with IPL securing 1.7 million tonnes of urea at $400-404/t cfr under its 20th October tender.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media. Urea: While prices mostly fell in mid-August, the main development was the massive purchase of Chinese urea by Indian Potash Limited. IPL confirmed that, out of a total tender settlement of 1.759 million tonnes, one million tonnes will be met by Chinese exporters. This far exceeded expectations and added to the already bearish sentiment of most market players.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media. Urea: There was a general price upswing for both urea and ammonium nitrate in mid-June, while ammonium sulphate and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices remained weak. Urea prices were pushed up in most regions as traders sought to secure cargoes across the globe – resulting in granular urea deals from the Baltic ($260-280/t f.o.b.), Egypt ($312-335/t f.o.b.), Middle East ($253-280/t f.o.b.) and China ($308-310/t f.o.b.).