Category: Outlook & Reviews

Nitrogen+Syngas’s annual listing of new ammonia, urea, nitric acid and ammonium nitrate plants.

On February 27th, in a speech to the Bundestag, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz described the events then unfolding as a “zeitenwende” – a historical turning point. He was speaking of German foreign and security policy, but it seems likely that Russia’s February 24th invasion of Ukraine may end up marking a break with the past in many different ways. Last issue’s Editorial was written when Russia’s ‘special military operation’ was still only a few days old, and the situation was still very fluid. Two months on, and for all of the uncertainties remaining, some glimpses of the way that things are changing are becoming clearer.

Meena Chauhan, Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.

This is the 400th issue of Sulphur magazine, now in its 69th year. From its beginnings as the Quarterly Bulletin of the Sulphur Exploration Syndicate, it remains the only magazine dedicated to both the sulphur and sulphuric acid industries.

The economic conversion of phosphogypsum waste into a valuable product has been pursued for decades. Although phosphogypsum is still generally disposed of as waste, industry attitudes are changing and greater use of phosphogypsum will be expected in a circular economy.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the sulphur market on its head, potentially removing several million tonnes of supply from Russia and Kazakhstan and sending prices skyrocketing.

US refiners have upgraded to take advantage of generally cheaper, sourer crude feeds. However, a ban on oil imports from Russia may make that harder to come by.

The ongoing conflict in Russia-Ukraine remains a key focus for the market in the months ahead. It is unclear whether buyers that are currently doing so will permanently choose non-Russian sulphur sources, but trade flow changes are expected to persist through the rest of 2022.

The Sulphur Community is set to reconvene in Abu Dhabi. CRU and UniverSUL Consulting, with the support of ADNOC, are hosting a new live event, Middle East Sulphur Conference (MEScon), which will take place at the Rosewood Abu Dhabi from 24-26 May 2022.

Sulphur prices keep on climbing. A quick check as I was writing this showed some indicators above $600/t, around four times what they were last year. As the title of this editorial suggests, what goes up must of course eventually come back down, but of course as always the question is: when?