Author: richardhands

• The short term outlook appears balanced for the most part, although more bullish participants seem to be holding sway over market sentiment.

As well as a recent US Chemical Safety Board report on an ammonia release incident, the past year has seen considerable focus on safety of ammonia at sea, in preparation for its possible use as a clean burning maritime fuel.

This year’s International Methanol Technology Operators’ Forum (IMTOF) was held at the Holiday Inn Regents Park hotel, London, from June 15 to 18.

Increased merchant ammonia capacity over the next few years may lead to longer term price declines.

Ju ne saw fertilizer markets – urea markets in particular – thrown into chaos by the widening of hostilities in the Middle East. Israel’s and then the United States’ strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the retaliatory attacks on Israel and Qatar for a while held out the potential for the conflict to widen, perhaps even leading to attempts to close the straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, something not seen since the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s when Iraq tried to cripple Iran’s oil exports during the eight year Iran-Iraq War.

President Donald Trump delayed his ‘liberation day” tariffs by three months on 9th April, while simultaneously ramping up levies on China. In this latest twist to the on-off US tariffs saga, the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on additional duties should provide international suppliers to the world’s biggest fertilizer market with some respite – for now. With the exception of China, the US will now cut back its so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ to 10% for the duration of a three-month suspension period. The European Union’s tariff is now halved to 10%, for example, with the trade bloc also pausing its trade countermeasures against the US.

Adani Group subsidiary Kutch Copper has commenced operations at its new Mundra copper refinery and smelter, the company announced on 28 March. The company previously indicated an expected start-up by the end of Q1. The new smelter will help boost domestic supplies of copper, demand for which is robust from the construction, transport and power sectors in particular and likely to double by 2030, with the shift towards clean energy and electric vehicles. This first phase of the project will have around 500,000 t/a copper capacity, with a similar capacity planned to be added in the second phase by 2029.

It is reported that Tongling Nonferrous is planning production cuts this year given current record low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). CRU estimates that the company’s potential cutbacks will total 67,000 tonnes of copper for the year. However, the start-up of the Jinguan II and Chifeng Jinjian II projects could offset the reduction in concentrate demand at operational smelters. Tongling Nonferrous owns five operational smelters/refineries with a total of 1.28 million t/a blister capacity and 1.73 million t/a refined capacity, respectively. It is understood that the Chifeng Jintong 220,000 t/a smelter has cut operating rates by 10% since early March due to concentrate tightness.

Indonesia has become the epicentre of the world nickel industry, and is now seeking to raise royalty rates to capture more value from this. Will this impact upon the continuing expansion of HPAL capacity there?

Thyssenkrupp Uhde’s BioTfueL® technology has been selected for the BioTJet project by Elyse Energy and its partners (Axens, Avril, IFPEN). This project will produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from end-of-life wood waste and local forestry residues. together with the addition of green hydrogen. By 2029, BioTJet will supply sustainable aviation fuel to reduce carbon intensity in air