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Nitrogen+Syngas 399 Jan-Feb 2026

27 January 2026

Market Outlook

Market Outlook

AMMONIA

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply comes online. Woodside’s Beaumont facility produced its first ammonia at the end of December and is poised to start commercial production in early 2026, and there is also new supply from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA). In Saudi Arabia, the expectation is that both Ma’aden and Sabic will return to the market mid-to-late January.

• CBAM remains an issue in Europe. Importers are expected to prioritise Egyptian and Algerian material, which carry the lowest default values, though supply from both origins is tight. Market participants expect liquidity to remain thin through January as buyers and sellers adapt to the new regulatory framework.

UREA

• Prices should remain flat-to-firm in the near term, with low offers into India providing a positive boost for the market.

• Supply from China was constrained, with no further quota allocations for exports expected to be issued by Beijing in the near term, and remaining volumes under China’s fourth quota allocation of 2025 are said to be very minimal.

• Iranian supply is also offline for the time being; Khorasan Petrochemical Company (KHPC), Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Company (KPIC), Lordegan Urea Fertilizer Company (LUFC), Razi Petrochemical Company (RPC), Masjed Soleyman Petrochemical Industries (MIS) and Shiraz Petrochemical Company (SPC) were all down due to domestic natural gas shortages, with Pardis said to be operating at 50%.

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) also affected urea shipments into Europe. Until further clarification is given, fresh import business is likely to be limited, although previously imported material in warehouses should be sufficient to cover local demand.

METHANOL

• Methanol markets were well supplied in December in spite of winter gas curtailments in Iran. China absorbed most seaborne flows, with import levels high, leading to high coastal inventories and episodic unloading delays that limited the upside for prices.

• US Gulf producers retained a structural cost advantage as Henry Hub gas prices remained low, while coal prices softened in China, improving coal-to-methanol margins. Demand was mixed: China restocking lifted nearterm buying, but downstream margins stayed weak. Naphtha prices also eased, narrowing the cost advantages for MTO producers, while polymer market weakness also capped the upside for production volumes. Chinese c.fr prices rebounded to the lowmid $240s/tonne.

• Iranian and Trinidadian outages tightened marginal supply, while Venezuelan exports flowed amid sanction uncertainty.

Latest in Agricultural

Green ammonia project “economically unfeasible”

World Energy GH2 has shelved its 1.2 GW green hydrogen and ammonia project in Stephenville, Newfoundland, after failing to secure offtake agreements. Project Nujio’qonik was conceived as a major green hydrogen/ammonia scheme backed by 2 GW of new wind capacity, intended to export green ammonia to Europe. However, despite a $50 million investment from South Korea’s SK Eco-plant and high-profile endorsement by then German chancellor Olaf Scholz, the developer has confirmed that the project is being replaced by a new initiative, called Clean Grid Atlantic, which will use the wind resource to power domestic markets instead.

BASF to supply hydrogen-based ammonia to OCI’s Geleen fertiliser plant

BASF and OCI Global have agreed for the first deliveries of renewable ammonia produced at BASF’s site in Ludwigshafen in order to produce low-carbon fertilizers at OCI’s site in Geleen. This initiative expands OCI’s low-carbon portfolio and introduces the “Pure” product line, delivering the same fertilizer quality at a substantially reduced carbon footprint without compromising on performance. BASF says that its renewable ammonia is certified according to ISCC PLUS and is produced using a mass balance approach, through which renewable energy-derived hydrogen is attributed to the renewable ammonia grades.

Toyo to build AN plant

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) has announced a contract award worth approximately $40 million to Toyo Engineering India Pvt Ltd for the supply of a second ammonium nitrate on an LEPC (Lump Sum Engineering, Procurement and Construction) basis. The plant will have a capacity of 480 t/d (160,000 t/a), and is projected to be built over a 20 month project timescale. The project received board approval during GNFC’s most recent board meeting. Toyo Engineering India has established a strategic tie-up with Spain’s INCRO SA for the technology license and supply of process knowhow. The new ammonium nitrate plant represents a substantial expansion for GNFC, with the company stating that this installation will enhance their capacity by 94%. GNFC says that it will better position the company to serve India’s growing demand for AN, while leveraging advanced international technology through the Toyo-INCRO partnership.

Drone attack on Acron

Acron’s fertilizer complex at Veliky Novgorod was reported to be on fire following a Ukrainian drone strike on December 10th. At least five explosions were reported at the facility, according to Ukrainian media. Novgorod Governor Alexander Dronov confirmed the attack and said the air defence system intercepted 19 drones over the region. Earlier, on December 4, Ukrainian drones struck the Nevinnomyssk Azot plant in Russia’s Stavropol region, a major facility that produces over 1 million t/a of ammonia and 1.4 million t/a of ammonium nitrate annually.

Contract awarded for nitric acid plant

NextChem has also announced that its nitrogen technology licensing division Stamicarbon, has been a licensing contract and the project development process for a new nitric acid plant in China. The project entails the application of Stamicarbon’s state-of-the-art mono-pressure technology, part of NX STAMI™ Nitrates series, which uses oxygen instead of air as feed for the process, enabling high energy recovery and low operational costs. NextChem says that the award builds on the Group’s longstanding expertise in nitrogen technologies and reflects its commitment to industrialising efficient, low-emission solutions for the agricultural supply chains.