Market Insight
Price trends and market outlook, 7th May 2026.
Price trends and market outlook, 7th May 2026.
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Strait of Hormuz disruptions linked to the Iran war have choked off fertilizer shipments from the Middle East and pushed prices sharply higher, prompting a wave of emergency support and trade measures as governments try to shield farmers ahead of key planting seasons.
Mosaic has withdrawn its 2026 phosphate production guidance and is cutting rates at key US and Brazilian plants as record sulphur prices compress stripping margins in an already tight phosphate market.
Ilya Motorygin of GG Trading says fertilizer trading is performing an essential function currently – in a market disrupted by supply earthquakes.
Thiozen Inc. has piloted a patented thermochemical process that removes hydrogen sulphide from sour gas while converting it into hydrogen.
Sulphur production continues to expand in the Middle East and East and South Asia both from new refineries and major sour gas projects.
A review of papers presented at this year’s Sulphur World Symposium, held by The Sulphur Institute (TSI) in Vancouver, Canada this year from April 28 to 30.
Policy decisions and geopolitical shocks are now the dominant drivers of sulphur and phosphate fertilizer markets, overriding more traditional seasonal fundamentals. The conflict in the Middle East, including the escalation around Iran, has tightened sulphur availability and lifted costs sharply, while China’s export restrictions continue to restrict global phosphate supply.
CRU’s Phosphates+Potash Expoconference was held in Paris in mid-April, with the Iran crisis uppermost in everyone’s mind. Margins are under pressure, sulphur has become a strategic constraint, and the phosphates investment pipeline is thin. CRU Principal Consultant Humphrey Knight examined the fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that fertilizers have been hit harder than most bulk commodities. A large share of exportable sulphur and traded urea normally originates in, or passes through, Gulf producers. The effective closure of the strait has squeezed the traded part of these markets, where international prices are set, and pushed benchmarks up sharply. The global phosphate market is structurally tight, and the combination of Chinese export policy and Middle East logistics has pushed the traded segment into a much more fragile state.