Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Ammonia supplies have been curtailed by production shutdowns, including Kaltim and PT PAU in Indonesia, SABIC and Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia, Sorfert in Algeria and Chinese gas-based producers. There have also been gas curtailments in Iran and Trinidad.

Ammonia prices have been on a rising trend over the past few months as plant closures begin to make themselves felt. Yara’s Baltic ammonia price also rose sharply at the start of October, and Nutrien’s announcement of the closure of its PCS-03 plant on Trinidad helped lift prices, with Yara and Mosaic’s contract prices rising $16/t in October.

Alistair Wallace , Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

The ammonia market continues to be oversupplied, and prices have dropped to historically low levels. Yuzhnyy rates dropped to $175/t f.o.b. in July. In spite of shutdowns in Trinidad and elsewhere, demand remains sluggish and recovery from the Covid epidemic is patchy, especially in the US.

Prices remain at low levels, in part because of oversupply due to new plant start-ups. However, there has also been a contraction in demand, especially for technical ammonia – industrial markets for ammonia in China and East Asia have been badly affected.

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

The impact of coronavirus on both supply and demand continues to provide considerable uncertainty to the market. Industrial demand seems to have been worst affected, and fertilizer related demand has largely kept up, although shutdowns in India’s ammonium phosphate sector have also affected demand. Spring is traditionally the strongest time for fertilizer demand, and this has helped support prices at least in the short term.