Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Prices will remain stable-to-soft across the board, though benchmarks could remain slightly more supported in the short-term than previously thought, with more significant declines likely in Q2-Q3.

Ammonia prices are expected to remain soft moving through January with little in the way of price support from both a supply and demand perspective. Weakened global sentiment was characterised by news of January’s Tampa settlement $100/t down on December at $525/t CFR, with further declines anticipated in Q1 once the Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) project comes online. Traders returned to their desks in the New Year and ammonia prices extended losses amid a stable supply outlook and a distinct lack of downstream industrial and fertilizer demand.

Ammonia prices are expected to remain soft moving through January into February, with little in the way of price support from both a supply and demand perspective. January’s Tampa settlement was $100/t down on December at $525/t CFR.

Tampa ammonia contract prices increased dramatically during September, from $395/tonne c.fr to $575/ tonne c.fr. The main culprit was plant outages and reduced production at several plants in the region. The tight supply situation was exacerbated by a delay to the restart of Ma’aden’s 1.1 million t/a ammonia plant in Saudi Arabia.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Ammonia prices have now dropped by about 50% from their highs a year ago. Gas prices have fallen, particularly in Europe, and peak fertilizer application season is over in Europe and North America, leading to slackening demand., leading to slackening demand.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Supply in southeast Asia looks tight for the coming weeks, but further declines in Chinese domestic prices could alter the supply/demand balance in the region in August.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media