Section: CRUNS Market Intelligence

Prices will remain stable-to-soft across the board, though benchmarks could remain slightly more supported in the short-term than previously thought, with more significant declines likely in Q2-Q3.

Ammonia pricing in the US Mid-West stood at $625/st f.o.b. in February, with applications to field continuing to ramp up. Prices in the US Gulf remain pegged in the low-to-mid$400s/t f.o.b. Recent production outages in the region have largely subsided, though an unexpectedly early uptick in seasonal demand from local buyers is likely to provide a degree of price support moving forward. The Tampa ammonia settlement for March has been settled by Yara and Mosaic at a $445/t c.fr rollover, largely in line with market expectations. The North American market remains detached from the considerably more oversupplied global ammonia scene.

Ammonia prices are expected to remain soft moving through January with little in the way of price support from both a supply and demand perspective. Weakened global sentiment was characterised by news of January’s Tampa settlement $100/t down on December at $525/t CFR, with further declines anticipated in Q1 once the Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) project comes online. Traders returned to their desks in the New Year and ammonia prices extended losses amid a stable supply outlook and a distinct lack of downstream industrial and fertilizer demand.

Ammonia prices are expected to remain soft moving through January into February, with little in the way of price support from both a supply and demand perspective. January’s Tampa settlement was $100/t down on December at $525/t CFR.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Tampa ammonia contract prices increased dramatically during September, from $395/tonne c.fr to $575/ tonne c.fr. The main culprit was plant outages and reduced production at several plants in the region. The tight supply situation was exacerbated by a delay to the restart of Ma’aden’s 1.1 million t/a ammonia plant in Saudi Arabia.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Ammonia prices have now dropped by about 50% from their highs a year ago. Gas prices have fallen, particularly in Europe, and peak fertilizer application season is over in Europe and North America, leading to slackening demand., leading to slackening demand.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media

Supply in southeast Asia looks tight for the coming weeks, but further declines in Chinese domestic prices could alter the supply/demand balance in the region in August.