Section: CRUNS Market & Features

l The market looks very tight through the end of the year, though some expect supply to improve in Q4. Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks. l Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia Project is now 97% complete, and the producer expects production from the first train in late 2025. There is no information from Gulf Coast Ammonia on when to expect commercial production. l There was an absence of fresh confirmed business into northwest Europe. Still, producers with ammonia capacity in the region are expected to be maximising output given the favourable economics at current spot natural-gas prices at the Dutch TTF.

By the end of October the ammonia market was facing an acute shortage of spot tonnage, reflected in a $60/t jump in the Tampa price for November. The benchmark Tampa price increased for the sixth straight month to its highest since February 2023 as the global ammonia supply crunch deepened. The surge at Tampa was said to be driven by good demand in the US for direct application combined with a lack of supply. Contributing factors included Nutrien shutting down its nitrogen production in Trinidad, potentially removing around 85,000 tonnes/month from the market. So far, there is no suggestion that other producers in Trinidad will follow suit, and they may even benefit from a boost natural-gas supply given the Nutrien outage, although it is unclear whether the spare gas will be directed to ammonia as opposed to other demand sources.

South America has become the largest importing region for nitrogen fertilizers, with Brazil overtaking India as the world’s largest urea importer. While there have been attempts to use local gas to develop a domestic nitrogen industry, these have faced challenges on a number of fronts.

The past few years have seen a rapid increase in attempts to generate ammonia from streams of nitrate polluted wastewater, but how practical are these methods?

Nitric acid demand continues to be dominated by fertilizer uses via various nitrate and NPK fertilizers, but industrial chemical production, metallurgical uses and explosives production are continuing to contribute to growth, especially in Asia.

• Ammonia prices look well insulated against any declines over the immediate term, though the upside may be more limited in some regions than others.

Ammonia prices in both hemispheres had levelled out by the end of August, with the exception of a few marginal upticks in some regions on the basis of the latest supply-demand dynamics. All eyes are now on September’s Tampa settlement, which should spell out the extent of the upside pressure set to emerge over the coming weeks.

Umicore’s latest research and development has resulted in a novel catalyst for the Ostwald process, aiming to enhance efficiency and sustainability in high-pressure nitric acid production.

Stamicarbon has optimised urea granulation to meet rising global fertilizer demands by improving product robustness, reducing capital and operating costs through a simplified design.

Casale’s high-performance finishing technologies combine flexibility and innovation with seamless integration and sustainability across the nitrogen fertilizer value chain. Gabriele Marcon and Ken Monstrey of Casale present the latest developments in Casale’s comprehensive portfolio of fertilizer finishing technologies and highlight recent projects.