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Section: CRUNS Market & Features

Price Trends

Ammonia benchmarks west of Suez remain supported by limited availability at key regional export hubs amid increased potential for cargoes to arrive from the East, where availability is far healthier, and prices appear under pressure. The disparity in prices was illustrated towards the end of August, when Nutrien sold 25,000 tonnes to multiple buyers in NW Europe for 1H September delivery at $550-555/t c.fr. When netted back to Trinidad, the price marks a sizeable premium on the $375/t f.o.b. last achieved by Nutrien back in late June, although given that last business in Algeria was fixed at $520/t f.o.b., it appears there is room for delivered sales into Europe to move up further. Regional availability is still limited, with extreme weather conditions in the US Gulf and North Africa potentially impacting supply further over the coming weeks.

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Green ammonia production facilities can be situated in remote areas with access to often fully off-grid renewable power supply. This article examines plant concepts and discusses the challenges and solutions for these plant architectures. Through a case study, an efficient and innovative methodology to compare options and optimise the sizing of the plant is presented. The methodology addresses the intermittency of the power production, the flexibility limits of the main process units, and the costs of investment and operation, using proprietary techno-economic dynamic simulation software, Odyssey.

Price Trends

Ammonia markets were quiet in June, though both CF Industries and Grupa Azoty were reported to be looking for July tonnes and the enquiry will test how tight the market is going forward. Algeria has traded in the $400-405/t f.o.b. range, suggesting c.fr values in Europe might be slightly higher at $450-460/t c.fr. Supply from Algeria has been and continues to be somewhat restricted because of constraints caused by the hot weather. Gas supply however is easing in Egypt and further ammonia exports should emerge shortly.