Category: Outlook & Reviews

Global sulphur prices were mostly assessed flat in mid-January, with only slight changes for China, Indonesia and India, while the first quarter contracts for the Middle East, North Africa and Tampa increased from the previous quarter. Overall, the number of transactions taking place globally has declined as subdued demand has limited trading activity in most delivered markets. The current sulphur price environment has been shaped by the combination of rising Chinese demand and higher Middle East f.o.b. prices in the second half of last year. As a result, some consumer markets such as Indonesia and India have been subject to upward pressure in order to remain attractive destinations. But demand remained lacklustre across delivered markets, leaving prices relatively stable.

Sulphur prices may remain stable before decreasing on muted demand and transactions may increase in frequency contributing to price decreases in the first half of 2025.

Brazil’s state-controlled oil company Petrobras plans to resume construction of its UFN-III nitrogen fertilizer unit in Tres Lagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul state.

As a tumultuous 2024 draws to a close, CRU’s fertilizer team to make a few predictions for the year ahead.

CRU will host the 2025 Fertilizer Latino Americano conference at the Windsor Oceanico Hotel, Rio de Janeiro, 26-29 January 2025. Join key market players at Latin America’s biggest fertilizer networking event.

We look ahead at fertilizer industry prospects for the next 12 months, including the key economic and agricultural drivers likely to shape the market during 2025.

Market snapshot, 2nd January 2025

Continuing growth in Chinese ammonium sulphate production is leading to a continuing flood of exports, as greater awareness of the utility of sulphur as a fertilizer leads to increasing global demand.

Global sulphur prices underwent increases in some key benchmark markets during October, but spot activity nevertheless remained muted, with demand subdued and availability tight. Market participants continue to closely track geopolitical developments.

While underlying supply and demand criteria continue to set floors and ceilings for nitrogen and other syngas derived products, political events as ever have the potential to derail all calculations. While much attention has focused on the US election, the escalating crisis in the Middle East continues to have the potential to threaten fertilizer trade in multiple ways. As this issue was going to press, Israel had just launched its retaliatory missile strike on Tehran, on October 26th, the latest in a series of tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran, in particular an Iranian missile strike on Israel on October 1st. The Iranian government appeared to be downplaying the results as “limited”, but said that it considered itself “entitled and obligated to defend itself”.