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Category: Commodity

Oil sands production to reach record this year

S&P has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million bbl/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million bbl/d by 2030; half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 bbl/d (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favourable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximising existing assets through investments in optimisation and efficiency. While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

Smelters process Chilean concentrate for free

The mid-year negotiations between Antofagasta (AMSA) and Chinese smelters have concluded with a historic settlement of $0/0¢. While unprecedented, the outcome is not surprising, as it lands slightly above the midpoint of the believed negotiating range, from -$15/-1.5¢ proposed by Antofagasta +$10/1.0¢ from the Chinese smelters. Moreover, this result aligns with market participants' rumours circulating prior to the agreement. Separately, rumours suggest Q3 contract negotiations between one top miner and Chinese smelters concluded at levels ranging from -$25/-2.5¢ to (+)$5/0.5¢.