Market Outlook
• Continuing oversupply means that ammonia prices should continue to come under pressure moving into 2H April, though it remains to be seen just how much further values in Asia can decline before producers begin to shutter output.
• Continuing oversupply means that ammonia prices should continue to come under pressure moving into 2H April, though it remains to be seen just how much further values in Asia can decline before producers begin to shutter output.
In mid-April, Ammonia prices both east and west of Suez remained firmly oriented to the downside, with supply still heavily outweighing demand and suppliers scrambling to place excess tonnage. Bearish market sentiment was exemplified by a Trammo sale to OCP at $415/t c.fr Morocco, $20/t short of Tampa’s c.fr settlement for April and around $44/t down on February.
Urea markets are well supplied at present in spite of Chinese export restrictions, but face volatility due to a number of trade barriers and other non-market pressures.
The Kazakh government has approved the construction of a new ammonia and urea plant in the country’s Mangistau region, on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. Construction will be carried out by a joint venture between QazaqGaz National Company and ESTA Construction under Qazesta Fertilizers Ltd. The total investment for the project is $1.35 billion, with construction expected to be completed within three and a half years. The plant’s annual production capacity is projected to reach up to 700,000 t/a of urea and 420,000 t/a of ammonia, adding value to the country’s natural gas production and helping to substitute domestic production for foreign imports of nitrogen fertilizer. Despite a national demand of 3.2 million t/a, domestic production currently only meets about half of that need.
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