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Nitrogen+Syngas 392 Nov-Dec 2024

30 November 2024

Price Trends

Price Trends

In October, ammonia benchmarks were more or less stable across the board. West of Suez, supply from Algeria was constrained by an ongoing turnaround at one of domestic player Sorfert’s production units. Still, demand from NW Europe remained quiet, although CF was set to receive a 15,000 tonne spot cargo from Hexagon some time in November, reportedly sourced somewhere in the region of $530/t f.o.b. Turkey. While regional supply appeared tight, steadily improving output from Trinidad and the US Gulf could alleviate recent pressures, with many players of the opinion that Yara and Mosaic could agree a $560/t c.fr rollover for November at Tampa as a result.

East of Suez, Middle East exports remained constricted with maintenance works at Ma’aden’s No.3 unit still ongoing. The producer had anticipated moving 125,000 tonnes in October, with 60% of that total originally lined up for India. Buyers there continued to resist higher c.fr offers, with phosphate fertilizer producers seemingly holding back on raw material purchases until further clarity on latest phosphoric acid supply contracts was given.

Further east, tonnes continued to move out of Indonesia, where Trammo picked up a formula-priced spot cargo from Mitsubishi for loading from Luwuk. Elsewhere, spot appetite in South Korea and Taiwan, China remained absent, with importers negotiating their 2025 supply contracts. In China, domestic prices moved down in line with inland urea benchmarks, with both imports and exports confined to a minimum.

In urea markets, with India expected to float another tender to secure tonnes for December, Middle East values shot up another $20/t. SIUCI sold a November cargo at $390/t f.o.b. with further trader interest reported at $385/t f.o.b. With other markets generally very quiet, this demand was believed to emanate from traders looking to position for the next Indian tender. News of an IPL tender in India came hot on the heels of RCF confirming letters of intent for 560,000 tonnes.

Nigeria saw some further f.o.b. sales with Dangote placing another cargo, but there was no real clarity as to whether the price had traded once again in the low $350s/t f.o.b., or if a cargo had been sold at $355/t f.o.b. Top-off tonnes were reported sold at $405/t f.o.b. by AOA, a high price considering most October cargoes from the Algerian producer were expected to head to Latin America. Sorfert has few tonnes to offer as its production is in mid-turnaround but a price of $410/t f.o.b. was being asked for small volume sales into Europe. Egyptian prices were fairly solid with November priced at $410/t f.o.b., but there was no rush to buy or sell.

In Brazil buyers recognised the tightness in the global supply market, but this is partly as a result of the armada of vessels headed in their direction. Prices were assessed at $380-385/t c.fr, but with limited liquidity. Weather and finance issues, poor crop prices also contributed to the lack of buying interest as well as the healthy import line-up. Urea prices in NOLA slipped all the way back to $325/st f.o.b.

Table 1: Price indications diammonium phosphate

END OF MONTH SPOT PRICES

natural gas

ammonia

urea

diammonium phosphate

Latest in Outlook & Reviews

Running the gamut

This issue of Sulphur magazine contains a preview of CRU’s Sulphur + Sulphuric Acid conference in Woodlands, Texas, which is being held from November 3rd to 5th this year, giving delegates the opportunity to meet and discuss some of the trends which are continuing to change the sulphur and sulphuric acid industries. Some of this is echoed in our editorial coverage this issue; the rise of electric vehicles and the continuing electrification of society is changing demand for metals and impacting upon both sulphur and sulphuric acid markets alike. As CRU’s principal analyst Peter Harrison discusses on pages 36-37, battery demand for nickel is leading to a surge in new nickel leaching capacity in Indonesia which is drawing in greatly increased volumes of sulphur, while rising demand for copper is leading to additional volumes of smelter acid from China, India and Indonesia which are impacting the merchant market for acid, as detailed by CRU’s Viviana Alvorado on pages 38-40. In the United States, new lithium mines will require additional sulphur (see pages 22-23). Rare earths and battery metal recovery will form a major topic on the first day of the Sulphur + Sulphuric Acid conference, with speakers from Lithium Americas, one of the pioneers of the new US lithium industry.

Is the world ready for CBAM?

At the end of this year, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will move from its transitional phase into its ‘definitive’ phase, whereby the carbon costs of goods entering the EU will need to be priced in. CBAM requires suppliers to calculate the carbon emissions of their fertilizer (and other, e.g. steel) products, including indirect emissions, for example from electricity consumed in the process, and emissions of precursor or raw materials. They will then need to purchase CBAM certificates to cover embedded emissions above the established free allowance benchmark rates determined by the European Commission: 1.57 tonnes CO2e/tonne ammonia and 0.23 tCO2e/t nitric acid.