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Tag: Investment

The new normal

The devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to be felt around the world. At time of writing, nearly 4 million cases have been recorded, and at least a quarter of a million people have died, with the suspicion of many more, either from accidental or deliberate undercounting. Figures for excess deaths above a normal seasonal baseline show that places such as Turkey, Ecuador and Indonesia have probably been far worse affected than the official statistics show. There are nevertheless finally hopeful signs that Europe, so far the worst affected region, is beginning to follow the pattern of East Asia and Oceania and that cases are falling. The infection also seems to have peaked in North America, though in the US there is a long tail of infections. Elsewhere, cases are still rising in countries such as Brazil and Mexico.

Sulphur Industry News Roundup

Canadian Press reports in December have highlighted concerns that the new tighter IMO rules on sulphur content of marine fuels, which came into force on January 1st, could lead to reduced demand for oil sands bitumen and syncrude. Canadian oil output has been steadily increasing over the past two decades, mainly due to expanded bitumen recovery, which now accounts for 50% of Canada’s 4.6 million bbl/d of oil production. However, the discount for Western Canadian Select bitumen blend crude prices versus North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate could almost double to $30/bbl in January, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, averaging US$23-24/bbl for most of 2020, as US and other refiners use less heavy, sour oil and switch to lower sulphur feeds to try and optimise low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) production. However, reduced output from Canada’s competitors Mexico and Venezuela is currently helping to mitigate this. Oil sands producers with refineries or upgraders are expected to benefit as the new standards will increase demand for refined low-sulphur fuels. For example, Husky Energy has expanded its Lloydminster Upgrader to produce an extra 4,000 bbl/d of diesel, and reconfigured its Lima refinery in Ohio to use more heavy oil.

Happy new decade?

A New Year is typically a time for taking stock, for looking back at the year just gone, and thinking about the year to come. This year of course marks a bigger transition, from the 2010s to the 2020s. The past decade has been a volatile one, existing under the shadow of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, from which the world was still just emerging in 2010. Over the past decade, ‘quantitative easing’ has helped prevent deflation and driven a decade long stock market rally, but also kept both public and private debt levels high, as interest rates stay low. Weaning the global economy off QE has proved to be far more difficult than many anticipated.