Market Outlook
• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.
• Prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Middle East export availability is constrained.
In just its first two months, 2026 had already managed to be a rollercoaster of a year, but at the start of March, the onset of hostilities against Iran by the US and Israel has managed to deliver another huge shock to markets, particularly commodities. Iran’s strategy of widening the conflict to neighbouring states, including by attacking Qatar’s massive LNG facility at Ras Laffan, effectively shutting it down, has sent the LNG market into chaos, and attacks on several tankers and other ships have paralysed maritime insurance markets and by default achieved the long-feared closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
The government of Morocco has signed an agreement with the ORNX consortium to advance a $4.5 billion green ammonia project in the southern city of Laayoune, as part of Morocco’s ambitions to become a global hub for green hydrogen and derivatives. The development combine wind and solar electricity generation with hydrogen from electrolysis to feed green ammonia production. Under the terms of the agreement, more than 2 GW of renewable energy capacity will be installed, feeding 900 MW of electrolysers producing green hydrogen. To ensure operational stability and continuous output, the facility will also incorporate battery energy storage systems. In addition, a seawater desalination plant will be constructed to provide the purified water required for hydrogen production, addressing resource constraints in the arid coastal region. During its initial phase, the complex is expected to generate around 100,000 t/a of green hydrogen, which will allow the production of 560,000 t/a of green ammonia. The ammonia will be used both domestically in ammonium phosphate production as well as being exported internationally.
Grupa Azoty has dismissed its CEO Andrzej Skolmowski . He had been in the job less than one year, having originally been appointed in June 2025. Skolmowski was removed from his role as president of the company’s management board on 12 February, along with vice presidents Paweł Bielski and Andrzej Dawidowski. Grupa Azoty’s vice-chair, Aleksandra MachowiczJaworska , will now act as temporary president of the management board for up to three months until a replacement CEO is found.
NextChem says that its subsidiaries Stamicarbon and KT Tech have been awarded licensing, process design package (PDP) and critical equipment supply contracts for the development of three world-scale complexes, two of them dedicated to granular urea production, and one integrating ammonia and methanol co-production, for an undisclosed “major client in West Africa”. The contracts are all based on proprietary technologies.
CF Industries has reported a $51 million impairment in its most recent accounts due to the abandoning of its 20MW green hydrogen facility at the company’s huge Donaldsonville, Louisiana fertilizer complex. The alkaline electrolysis unit had been planned to feed green hydrogen to produce up to 20,000 t/a of green ammonia. The company says that it will focus instead on more economically attractive blue ammonia production.
A review of papers presented at CRU’s Nitrogen+Syngas 2026 Expoconference, held in Barcelona from February 10th-12th 2026.
Methanol’s phenomenal growth in the early years of the century was based on its uptake into fuel uses and its ability to bridge coal reserves with plastics production in China. However, with these sectors maturing, traditional chemical end uses are becoming the main growth sector once again.
CF Industries has signed a memorandum of understanding with Trafigura and TFG Marine, a leading global marine fuel supplier, to facilitate the adoption of low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel. Building on previous collaboration between CF Industries and Trafigura in the shipment of low-carbon ammonia, this agreement establishes a framework for the parties to work together on advancing low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel, supporting the global shipping industry’s emissions-reduction efforts, including market development, stakeholder engagement, and bunkering logistics planning. The collaboration will initially focus on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe.
ExxonMobil has been named by Clean Hydrogen Works as an additional defendant an in existing anti-trust suit over access to a CO2 pipeline. Clean Hydrogen Works alleges that CO2 enhanced oil recovery firm Denbury, now acquired by ExxonMobil, unlawfully terminated its previously agreed access to Denbury’s pipeline network, threatening the proposed Ascension Clean Energy (ACE) blue ammonia project in Louisiana’s Ascension Parish. ExxonMobil has its own blue hydrogen and ammonia project under development, at Baytown, Texas, although it “paused” it last year, citing weak customer demand and difficulty securing sufficient offtake agreements. ExxonMobil has not publicly commented on the lawsuit.