Rabobank expects 2027 rebound in Brazilian fertilizer demand

Rabobank expects fertilizer deliveries to Brazil to rise by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 46.6 million tonnes in 2027, in an updated forecast released on 4th November.

While this would partially reverse the 9.6% y-o-y decline in demand predicted for 2026, fertilizer deliveries to Brazil next year would remain below the record 49.7 million tonnes seen in 2025.

Uncertainties remain, however, with any recovery in fertilizer demand being conditional on an improvement in the financial circumstances of Brazil’s farmers. Bruno Fonseca, Rabobank’s senior fertilizer and farm inputs analyst, told reporters that the country’s farmers remained burdened by heavy debts, high interest rates and rising production costs.

Continuing disruption from the Middle East conflict is adding to these pressures. This “remains without a clear prospect of a solution and continues to affect the fertilizer market” by weighing on “the operating margins of main agricultural commodities”, Fonseca said.

The bank does, however, expect the profit margins of Brazil’s farmers to stabilise next year, with potentially a more significant uplift in margins toward the end of the 2027/28 crop season.

Brazil’s January-September urea and ammonium sulphate imports were down 25% y-o-y, according to Rabobank. Because of this shortfall, the timing of fertilizer imports and deliveries ahead of Brazil’s 2026/27 safrinha season will be critical.

Fertilizer requirements for safrinha corn and other crops will begin in January, raising questions about whether sufficient volumes will arrive in time.