Agricultural
11 November 2026
Mosaic expects bullish market to continue in 2027
Written by Beatrice Bedeschi
The fertilizer market will remain bullish in 2027 amid increased demand and supply constraints due to geopolitical factors, continuing a trend seen this year, Mosaic said.
Middle East tensions, bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia and Ukraine strikes on energy and agricultural infrastructure are among the key macroeconomic drivers of the past months, the company said in its 2026 Q3 results.
Strengthening El Niño conditions and the impact of underapplication of crop nutrients over the past two years have led to a tightened agricultural backdrop.
These factors have supported agricultural commodity prices from Q2, leading to increased demand for fertilizers, particularly in North America, a trend sent to continue in 2027.
Phosphate
Phosphate markets “remain tight with improving demand and lingering supply disruptions.”
Global production remains constrained by sulphur availability and the “timing of normalisation remains contingent on geopolitical events,” it said.
North American inventories are expected to stay low into next year, as growers and retailers re-engage for fall application.
Meanwhile, Brazilian inventories are well below last year “setting the stage for a return of pent-up import demand in the near future.”
Furthermore, China has exported minimal volumes of DAP and MAP over the past quarter, and little to no exports are expected through spring.
Mosaic’s phosphate segment’s sales volumes totalled 1.4 Mt in Q3, down 0.2 Mt year on year.
Sales volumes are expected to range between 1.3 -1.6 Mt in Q4. DAP prices at the plant are expected to average $820-840/t.
Potash
Meanwhile, potash market fundamentals are “positive (as) global demand looks to set another record given healthy affordability.”
While potash shipments have seen little impact from Middle East disruption, escalating attacks in the Black Sea have constrained shipping and are likely to inhibit export supplies from the region through the end of 2026, leading to subdued North American imports despite stronger demand.
Mosaic expects full-year potash production to stand at 8.6 Mt in 2026.
Overall, Mosaic reported a net loss of $72 million in 2026 Q3, against a net income of $411 million in 2025 Q3.
Adjusted EBITDA was $324 million in Q3, down from $806 million the previous year, reflecting lower sales volumes across all segments and higher raw material costs in the phosphate segment and for Mosaic’s Fertilizantes subsidiary, which were partially offset by higher phosphate prices.
