Round up day one CRU Nitrogen+Syngas ExpoConference

CRU’s Nitrogen+Syngas Expoconference 2026 returned to Barcelona for its second year running to discuss the state of the industry, both economically and technically. The opening included a tribute to Casale’s late Dr Umberto Zardi by Norbert Ringer of Clariant and Lisa Connock, Managing Editor of Nitrogen+Syngas magazine. Dr Zardi, whose obituary we carried in issue 398, was an inspirational figure in the industry, whose stewardship of Casale saw it return to its position as one of the major plant licensors, expanding from urea and ammonia to methanol and eventually nitric acid and plant construction. In her introduction, Lisa also discussed the challenges that the industry faces, balancing new low carbon technologies against finance and policy frameworks.

Market outlook

Charlie Stephen of CRU ran through major developments in nitrogen markets, which remain buoyed by strong demand, impacting fertilizer affordability. There is likely to be some relief from China’s relaxation of urea export restrictions, with imports projected to reach 6 million tonnes this year. India, meanwhile, continues to be the dominant importer in spite of a spate of new capacity building, with imports to reach 9.4 million t/a in 2026. Brazil, too, remains a huge importer, but its 8 million tonnes of urea imports may be capped by Brazil swallowing huge volumes of cheap ammonium sulphate from China. On the supply side, the US has a lot of new merchant ammonia capacity under development, and is likely to become a net exporter in the next couple of years.

Europe has instituted its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), particularly affecting nitrates markets in the future, until producers elsewhere invest in the same level of nitrous oxide abatement as EU producers have. Alex Tuckett, CRU’s head of economics, covered this alongside the ever-changing tariff situation. The EU still faces difficult choices as it tries to balance energy security, decarbonisation and growth and maintenance of its industrial base. At the same time, a US push for deregulation will increase the gap in regulatory costs between the US and Europe.

Keynote panel

An industry keynote panel discussion on major trends, which naturally converged around low carbon project development. Narayanan Valayaputtur of Egyptian Basic Industries Co (EBIC) noted that CBAM has changed his company’s perspective, and turned CO2 reduction into a key performance indicator. However, he advocated for an efficiency approach to begin with, arguing that if the whole industry increased its efficiency of ammonia production by 10%, this would be a larger carbon saving than all green and blue ammonia capacity that has reached a final investment decision.

Low carbon capacity

Paul Butterworth of CRU ruffled some industry feathers by suggesting that, given hydrogen production costs combining wind and solar power in different regions, using ammonia as a hydrogen carrier did not make economic sense, and that green hydrogen was better used encapsulated in low carbon ammonia or direct reduction iron (DRI) shipped directly for use in Europe. Rebecca Ruan of CRU added that of a total capacity of 274 million t/a of announcements of green and blue hydrogen capacity, only 6% had so far made it to a final investment decision (FID), with blue ammonia projects far more likely to make it than green, much of it in North America, while China is the location for much of the green capacity. As for the emergence of demand, marine fuel seemed the most promising demand pathway, particularly in Europe, although at a global level, the IMO has delayed implementation of its net zero framework in the short term.

Project profiles

The afternoon was devoted to a number of profiles of major projects. Phil Ingram of Johnson Matthey discussed his company’s partnership with EET on the Hydrogen Production Partnership 1 at the Stanlow refinery near Liverpool. The project required a guaranteed hydrogen offtake for investment, which it solves by coupling the refinery hydrogen feed with a combined heat and power plant to generate clean electricity from surplus hydrogen.

Andrea Zambianco of Saipem described the massive CERES project in Australia. This 2.3 million t/a urea project is sited on the Burrup Peninsula in Western Australia. Construction has been on a modular basis, with the modules constructed in India and shipped to Australia. The modules, some weighing up to 2,700 tonnes, are then taken overland from the port to the project site for assembly and tie-in.

A promising template for green project development was presented by Terje Bakken of ATOME. Sited in Paraguay, the project will produce 260,000 t/a of calcium ammonium nitrate using green ammonia, and has benefited from involvement by Yara, who have guaranteed 100% of the offtake from the project.