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Sulphur 421 Nov-Dec 2025

21 November 2025

Market Outlook

Market Outlook

SULPHUR

• Russia is set to impose a temporary ban on sulphur exports, covering liquid, granulated, and lump material, to ensure domestic supply. The measure will be in effect until 31 December 2025. CRU expects Russia to return to the export market in 2026 Q1. On the other hand, exports from Iranian ports are set to come back not only for Iranian production but also for Turkmenistan.

• Sulphur spot prices in the Middle are set to peak at $430/t f.o.b. in December-January before steadily declining to a low of $268/t f.o.b. in October 2026.

• Average Canadian prices moved to $385/t f.o.b., supported by the latest Asian transactions. Prices are set to trend similarly to other key markets, peaking at a forecast price of $420/t f.o.b. in January 2026 before falling to a low of $262/t f.o.b. in October 2026.

• Demand in Asia has been a highlight, with Indonesia particularly active. In the Chinese phosphate sector, sulphur has become chronically unaffordable, with the share of phosphate price already at around 84%, poised to surpass the 2022 peak of 92%. This implies crisis-level cost pressure for consumers. Prices are set to rise until January and then decline through 2026. Unlike 2022, normalisation is less likely to come quickly from the supply side; near-term adjustment will need to come from demand rationing or substitution.

• European sulphur prices are expected to peak in January before correcting lower thereafter. With northern hemisphere winter exports typically subdued, demand will need to soften to pull prices down. The 2026 Q1 decline will be driven largely by increased Russian and Iranian supply and slower Chinese consumption after the New Year holiday.

SULPHURIC ACID

• NW Europe prices are likely to continue higher to an average peak of $92/t f.o.b. in January, then trend lower through the year to a low near $72/t f.o.b. by October 2026. Morocco will likely step back into the market in 2026 Q1 for cargoes, which should help support the European FOB level.

• Chinese demand is likely to be even stronger from Saudi Arabia and from Indonesia in 2026. Higher sulphur prices have encouraged a shift from sulphur burning to importing acid, with Indonesia already taking Chinese cargoes. The price divergence between sulphur and sulphuric acid is incentivising increased acid imports, particularly in Indonesia and India. This should more rapidly absorb any surplus in the market.

• Acid premiums have compressed sharply, with India and China briefly in negative territory, weakening sulphur burner economics. In the near term, firm sulphur prices and constrained Asian smelter availability should keep imports elevated and support sulphuric acid prices into early 2026.

• Overall, prices are expected to rebound in November-December and remain supported through much of Q1, aided by limited Asian smelter availability due to seasonal maintenance and a likely pickup in Chilean procurement

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SMAC to list on Toronto stock exchange

Queensland-based SMAC (Strategic:Mi nerals:Acid:Critical) Developments says that it plans to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange in December to raise $1.3 million to fund a final feasibility study. The company is attempting to develop sulphuric acid production in northern Queensland to supply local industries. The company plans to initially build a 180,000 t/a sulphur burning acid plant at a site at Cloncurry, followed by a second phase which would involve developing a pyrite roasting plant to generate 550-600,000 t/a of sulphuric acid.

Travertine starts operation of demonstration plant

Travertine Technologies, Inc., has began operations at its demonstration plant in New York state. The core Travertine process demonstrated at this plant combines three major unit operations: salt-splitting electrolysis, caustic direct air capture, and mineralisation. This process produces sulphuric acid, calcium carbonate, and green hydrogen from waste gypsum and carbon dioxide captured directly from the air. The demonstration plant will produce 125 t/a of sulfuric acid, 125 t/a of calcium carbonate, and 55 t/a of carbon dioxide sequestration. The plant will supply sustainable sulphuric acid for local partner Sabin Metal Corporation's precious metals recycling and refining business.

Permit agreed for smelter revamp

Chile’s state-run mining company Enami says that it has received an environmental permit for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter, as part of the modernization of its Hernan Videla Lira smelting facility in the northern Atacama region. The new facility will process up to 850,000 t/a of copper concentrate, and its electrolytic refinery will produce up to 240,000 t/a of copper cathodes for use in electronics, construction and renewable vehicles. Enami says that the modernisation will “ensure profitable and sustainable operations, and practically triple the capacity of the old smelter.”