Market Outlook

AMMONIA

• Prices look set to come under further pressure moving into March, particularly east of Suez. Prices in the West – specifically in northwest Europe – have enjoyed a partial degree of support through February, though this appears unlikely to hold for much longer.

• In the US, there is pessimism in the market about exports from the 1.3 million t/a Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas, but there is confidence that Woodside Energy’s 1.1 million t/a Beaumont New Ammonia project will come online on time in Q3 of this year.

• In Ukraine, prospects for a restart at one of the two 550,000 t/a units at Odesa Port Plant (OPZ) were dashed after Russian missile attacks on local infrastructure impacted gas supply to the complex.

• Global demand remains limited outside NW Europe, but renewed import appetite could also emerge from India in late March.

UREA

• Prospects for urea prices remain bearish. Every week that India delays coming to the market puts pressure on the market, although producers in many areas have yet to accept the lower bids. The question remains open on whether support from India can be found for March loading, though it seems certain that April tonnage will be required.

• Ice on upper reaches of the Mississippi River have also impacted on US internal demand, though stocks continue to build at New Orleans. Some February shipments have been pushed into March, shifting the import forecast to 585,000 tonnes for February and 529,000 tonners for March. Demand is expected to improve in the coming weeks, but in the meantime NOLA urea prices remain under pressure.

• Chinese prices have rallied due to downstream buying, but the downward pressure of significant supply still exists.

METHANOL

• Methanol demand remained strong in southeast Asia particularly among chemical end-users, while operating issues at some regional production plants helped to keep availability tight and prices higher than anticipated.

• China, conversely, has seen a dip in demand due to maintenance at major MTO plants, and weaker demand from other downstream industries at the same time that production rates remained relatively high, leading to increasing stockpiles, with storage closer to capacity. All of this had the effect of pushing domestic Chinese prices lower.

• European methanol prices had stabilised by the end of February after a decline in the first two months of the year, reaching $350/t after the restart of the 900,000 t/a Tjelbergodden plant. The European methanol market shrank by 2.3% during 2024. US prices were also stable, with loadings from Trinidad down.