Tag: Prices

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic has been the big story in every market this year, the disruption and dislocations that this has caused have masked some of the bigger trends in the urea market, such as the revival of Chinese exports and India’s push for self-sufficiency.

“T here are,” Mark Twain once remarked, “three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It’s certainly difficult to know what to make of economic statistics and indicators at the moment, in the world turned upside down that the Covid-19 pandemic has delivered. Here in the UK, we are told that April and May saw the national economy contract by 25%, the largest fall in 300 years of the Bank of England’s economic record keeping, and the situation is very similar across much of the developed world. But how real is that figure? After all, we were all sent home in March, to ‘lock down’ and prevent the spread of the virus, and we are only now starting to move back towards some semblance of normality. Some of us, fortunately or not, have still been able to work from home, but for much of the economy, especially for much of the service sector; tourism, travel, restaurants and hotels, theatres and cinemas – there has been zero activity. Remove half of the largest sector of the economy for three months and surely a 25% fall in output is exactly what you’d expect? But is that real, or just a number? Has that activity gone for good, or, now that we are emerging, blinking into the sunlight again, can we switch the economy back on again as easily as we switched it off?

Meena Chauhan , Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.

Sulphur demand losses for production of phosphoric acid are forecast at 2.2 million t/a in 2020. Factoring in demand gains in markets such as Morocco, the sector is expected to see a drop of 800,000 t/a in 2020. Recovery is forecast from 2021 with a 2 million t/a increase forecast.

Agricultural markets represent 75% of nitrogen demand worldwide. Rising populations, changing crop types, moves towards sustainability and the spread of speciality fertilizers and new technologies are all changing the market for nitrogen fertilizers, but the Covid pandemic may affect markets in a variety of different ways.

Alistair Wallace, Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.

Merchant ammonia capacity, only a relatively small 10% of overall ammonia demand, has been expanding in recent years and was already in surplus even before the current Covid crisis, but longer term a shortage of new projects may tighten the market again.

Prices remain at low levels, in part because of oversupply due to new plant start-ups. However, there has also been a contraction in demand, especially for technical ammonia – industrial markets for ammonia in China and East Asia have been badly affected.

Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media