The impact of coronavirus on both supply and demand continues to provide considerable uncertainty to the market. With much of Hubei province on lockdown, and a corresponding reduction in ammonia demand for DAP production, Chinese imports appear to be down, pushing more ammonia onto the international market and creating generally bearish sentiment.
Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media
A New Year is typically a time for taking stock, for looking back at the year just gone, and thinking about the year to come. This year of course marks a bigger transition, from the 2010s to the 2020s. The past decade has been a volatile one, existing under the shadow of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, from which the world was still just emerging in 2010. Over the past decade, ‘quantitative easing’ has helped prevent deflation and driven a decade long stock market rally, but also kept both public and private debt levels high, as interest rates stay low. Weaning the global economy off QE has proved to be far more difficult than many anticipated.
Meena Chauhan , Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.
The refining industry, the source of half of the world’s elemental sulphur, continues to face major structural changes from changing feedstock and product slates and increasing regulatory burdens.
How the processed phosphates market develops over the coming months will be a major factor for the short term outlook for sulphur trends. Improvement is anticipated in the phosphates market from around mid-2020 which may help to support sulphur demand and in turn pricing.
Jerry d’Aquin of ConSul Inc. looks at the impact of falling sulphur prices on the US market.
Floor prices in nitrogen markets are set by marginal producers high on the cost curve, usually using higher cost feedstocks. Recently, lower coal prices in China and the cost of imported LNG have begun to change the dynamic between producers on the margins.
Alistair Wallace , Head of Fertilizer Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for nitrogen.
US agricultural demand is expected to pick up in 1Q 2020, and farm inventories are low.