Category: Outlook & Reviews

Gas availability and pricing continues to affect ammonia and methanol output from Trinidad, while Venezuela struggles with sanctions and political instability.

Although the urea market has weathered the pandemic relatively well, a significant amount of new capacity is due to come on-stream in the next year or so, and could keep prices depressed unless more Chinese capacity closes.

Judging by the pages of the project announcements in our news section, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the ammonia and methanol industries were all running off hydrogen generated from electrolysis, and that we had already entered an era of ‘clean’ chemical generation which did not require fossil fuels as a feedstock. Of course, while companies can naturally be forgiven for wanting to put the best public face on their green credentials, it does obscure the fact that for the moment 99% of syngas generation comes from natural gas, coal, and some coke or naphtha.

Meena Chauhan, Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.

While the covid pandemic has kept refinery run rates down in 2020, new refinery sulphur capacity will nevertheless form the bulk of new additions to sulphur production over the next few years. But delays to projects on both the supply and demand sides could tip a fairly balanced market in either direction.

Sulphur’s annual survey of recent, current and future sulphur recovery unit construction projects maps the developing shape of brimstone production from fuel and gas processing plants worldwide.

Metal processing in Northeast Asia is the major source of sulphuric acid exports from the region, and the ramp up of Chinese copper smelter capacity is leading to increased acid availability.

Major projects to consider in the short term outlook are Barzan in Qatar and the Clean Fuels Project in Kuwait. Combined these would add over 3 million t/a of sulphur capacity.

Although 2020 saw a contraction in GDP by 10% due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the country had been one of the fastest growing of the world’s top 10 economies, with growth of 8.3% in 2016, although this had slowed to 4.1% in 2019. Its population is growing, and it is due to become the most populous country in the world by 2027 according to UN figures, with total population reaching 1.64 billion by 2050. The country thus continues to require more food, leading to rising sulphur/sulphuric acid consumption for the phosphate industry on the one hand, although increasing vehicle use and growth in domestic refining is also leading to some additional sulphur production.

There is an old adage that if you put two economists in a room, you will get three different opinions. As the world enters its second year of dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, that certainly still seems to be the case among those grappling with predicting an increasingly uncertain world.