
Nickel market developments
Indonesia has become the epicentre of the world nickel industry, and is now seeking to raise royalty rates to capture more value from this. Will this impact upon the continuing expansion of HPAL capacity there?
Indonesia has become the epicentre of the world nickel industry, and is now seeking to raise royalty rates to capture more value from this. Will this impact upon the continuing expansion of HPAL capacity there?
The Philippine government is looking to follow Indonesia’s success in attracting downstream investment by banning the export of nickel ore. The Philippine Congress could ratify a bill banning raw mineral exports as early as June. The ban would come into force five years after approval to give miners time to build downstream processing plants. This development could potentially lead to higher nickel prices in the medium term if there is a delay to building domestic capacity and the Indonesian government becomes serious about restraining ore availability.
Indonesia is increasing the royalty rates that the government takes on metals mined within the country. The Indonesian government has proposed a tiered royalty structure on nickel ore sales, ranging between 14–19%, depending on the prevailing nickel price. This would replace the current flat rate of 10%. A 14% rate would apply when nickel prices are below $18,000 /t, increasing progressively to 19% for LME prices above $31,000 /t. The royalty is calculated based on revenue from nickel ore sales.
Indonesian nickel miner Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA) and partners have signed definitive agreements to construct a high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plant on the Morowali industrial park, Sulawesi. The unit will have a nameplate capacity of 90,000 t/a of contained nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP). PT Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt (SLNC) will construct and operate the plant adjacent to the existing HPAL plant operated by PT Huayue Nickel Cobalt (HNC). SLNC will source and process laterite nickel ore through a 20 year commercial agreement with MBMA's SCM mine, starting from the commissioning date. An ore preparation plant will be built at the SCM mine to enable ore transportation via pipeline to the SLNC processing plant at IMIP. The total combined investment for constructing SLNC (including interest incurred during construction) is expected to be approximately $1.8 billion according to Merdeka. Construction of the project commenced in January 2025 and is expected to reach commissioning stage within 18 months.
PT Pupuk Kujang, a subsidiary of state-owned fertilizer producer holding company PT Pupuk Indonesia, is conducting a trial production of green ammonia projected to replace coal in the power generation industry. In local press reports, Robert Sarjaka, Director of Operations and Production of Pupuk Kujang, said that the production of green ammonia is part of the company’s efforts to contribute to realizing the energy transition in Indonesia, namely making Pupuk Kujang the first company to produce green ammonia in the country. Pupuk Kujang receives green hydrogen from renewable power supplied by PLN Indonesia Power (PLN IP), part of state power utility PT PLN. In the first trial phase, Pupuk Kujang will process 1 t/d of green hydrogen into 5 t/d of green ammonia.
Global sulphur prices underwent increases in some key benchmark markets during October, but spot activity nevertheless remained muted, with demand subdued and availability tight. Market participants continue to closely track geopolitical developments.
In spite of increasing environmental concerns over the use of coal as a feedstock, it continues to provide around one quarter of the world’s ammonia. But in a world that is decarbonising, is there still a future for coal-based capacity?
At the end of August, the Qatar Chemical and Petrochemical Marketing and Distribution Company (Muntajat) tendered for 35,000 tonnes of sulphur for September loading from Ras Laffan, with offer prices reported at or around $130s/t f.o.b., according to market sources. Bids were received at multiple levels, with market participants initially anticipating awards around the mid-$120s/t f.o.b. The tender result was higher than market expectations and would equate to delivered prices to key Asian markets at $150-155/t c.fr. But prices in China and Indonesia remained lower this week at around $140-145/t c.fr, with India at $145-150/t c.fr. Prices have increased steeply since Muntajat’s 25 June session, which was indicated awarded in the mid-$80s/t f.o.b.. and Muntajat posted its Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) for September at $125/t f.o.b., up $19/t from $106/t f.o.b. in August. This represents the highest QSP since March 2023 at $133/t f.o.b., and reflects delivered levels to China nearing $150/t c.fr at current freight rates. Tight supply and strong downstream demand have pushed tender prices higher. Muntajat tenders were previously awarded at $92/t f.o.b. in April, up from $88/t in March and the low $80s/t f.o.b. in February.
One of the biggest areas for new sulphuric acid demand in the past few years has been in nickel processing plants, particularly in Indonesia. A decade ago, incoming president Joko Widodo took a strategic decision that the country needed to try and capture more of the value chain from its mining and mineral industry, which was focused at the time on exports of aluminium, copper and nickel ores and concentrates, mainly to China. Over the past 10 years, the export of raw ores has been progressively restricted and companies instead compelled to build downstream processing plants for the metals. With China the main recipient of Indonesian ores, much of the investment in metals processing in Indonesia has been via Chinese companies.