Section: CRUSU Comment

Ordinarily I try to choose a different subject each issue for an editorial, but as April lengthens towards May, and here in the northern hemisphere we start to see the first signs of summer, there unfortunately remains only one subject that is obsessing every industry, and that is the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact upon every aspect of our lives. Since our last issue we have all had to come to terms with ‘lockdown’ and ‘social distancing’, as the grim toll of deaths climbs in all regions. Here at BCInsight we are working without an office as best we can, and issues of Sulphur will continue to land in your email inboxes, but paper copies of the magazines may take longer to arrive, if at all, as shipping and customs procedures are tightened all around the world, and I can only apologise and ask that you bear with us.

This year appears to be determined to illustrate the limitations of forecasting. Projecting trend lines into the future, looking at expected completion dates for major projects and global economic projections are all worthwhile activities, and can provide valuable insights for business people, but any prediction is apt to be derailed by what one of our prime ministers supposedly once described airily as; “events, dear boy, events.”

A New Year is typically a time for taking stock, for looking back at the year just gone, and thinking about the year to come. This year of course marks a bigger transition, from the 2010s to the 2020s. The past decade has been a volatile one, existing under the shadow of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, from which the world was still just emerging in 2010. Over the past decade, ‘quantitative easing’ has helped prevent deflation and driven a decade long stock market rally, but also kept both public and private debt levels high, as interest rates stay low. Weaning the global economy off QE has proved to be far more difficult than many anticipated.