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Category: Commodity

Oil sands production to reach record this year

S&P has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million bbl/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million bbl/d by 2030; half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 bbl/d (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favourable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximising existing assets through investments in optimisation and efficiency. While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

Smelters process Chilean concentrate for free

The mid-year negotiations between Antofagasta (AMSA) and Chinese smelters have concluded with a historic settlement of $0/0¢. While unprecedented, the outcome is not surprising, as it lands slightly above the midpoint of the believed negotiating range, from -$15/-1.5¢ proposed by Antofagasta +$10/1.0¢ from the Chinese smelters. Moreover, this result aligns with market participants' rumours circulating prior to the agreement. Separately, rumours suggest Q3 contract negotiations between one top miner and Chinese smelters concluded at levels ranging from -$25/-2.5¢ to (+)$5/0.5¢.

Production begins at Dukouhe-Qilibei

PetroChina has started production at Dukouhe-Qilibei, the last of three major sour gas fields in its high-sulphur Chuandongbei cluster in southwest China. The Dukouhe-Qilibei field’s hydrogen sulphide content reaches up to 17.1%, the highest of any integrated gas field currently in production in China. PetroChina confirmed that commissioning was completed on 30 June, with the Dazhou gas processing plant now running at its full design capacity of 4 million cubic metres per day. The Chuandongbei cluster originally comprised three key sour gas block: Luojiazhai, Tieshanpo, and Dukouhe-Qilibei, and was initially developed under a partnership between Chevron and PetroChina, with Chevron leading the early-phase project development. However, Chevron exited the project in 2020, transferring full control to PetroChina following operational delays and cost challenges. PetroChina says that the completion of Dukouhe-Qilibei solidifies its capabilities in handling high-sulphur content gas fields and marks a significant boost to China’s domestic gas supply, particularly in inland regions with growing industrial demand. n

Karatau expansion onstream next year

EuroChem says that it expects the Phase III expansion project at its Karatau phosphate development in Kazakhstan to be onstream by 2026. In its Annual Report, EuroChem says that it signed an agreement with the China National Chemical Engineering Co. in May 2024 for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the chemical complex, and construction is now underway. The company says that it has also had state permits for the construction of additional sulphuric acid production, where the installation of large-capacity equipment is already underway and the first product is expected in 2026. The fertilizer plant is expected to have a capacity of around 1 million t/a, with a construction cost of $1.1 billion for the project. Phosphate reserves at Karatau are put at 41 million tonnes.

Works begin on Kaiyang LFP project

Guizhou Phosphorus Chemical Group has begun site clearing work in preparation for a major mining and downstream fertilizer and chemical project at Kaiyang in Guizhou province started. It is planned to complete the construction of the first phase of the 600,000 t/a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production line by the end of 2025. The whole scheme is projected to cost $4.6 billion, with participation from the Guiyang Municipal Government and Guizhou Phosphorus (Group) Co., Ltd., China National Nuclear Huayuan Titanium Dioxide, China Mining Resources Group and other companies. The project comprises 1.4 million t/a of ferrous sulphate heptahydrate production, with co-production of 400,000 t/a of titanium dioxide, 600,000 t/a of iron phosphate, 600,000 t/a of lithium iron phosphate, 150,000 t/a of lithium carbonate, 10,000 t/a of lithium fluoride, 20,000 t/a of lithium hexafluorophosphate, 100,000 t/a of copper smelting, and phosphogypsum decomposition to produce sulphuric acid, with power cogeneration and other public utilities. Phosphate ore is processed to produce iron phosphate, which is then combined with ferrous sulphate, a byproduct of titanium dioxide production, to produce lithium iron phosphate, which is ultimately used in new energy vehicle batteries. It is expected that the first batch of production lines will be put into production in 2026 and the entire industry chain will reach full production in 2028. After completion, Guizhou will become the world's largest production base of phosphorus-based positive electrode materials, accounting for more than 30% of the national market share.